Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2026 by 50%

Standard Chartered has drastically revised its previously optimistic Bitcoin price forecast, slashing the 2026 target by half while still maintaining a strong long-term outlook.

Key Takeaways

Standard Chartered significantly lowered its Bitcoin price targets, cutting the 2026 estimate from $300,000 to $150,000.
The bank believes the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer a key driver for price, with ETF flows now playing a more critical role.
A recent report from Bernstein aligns with Standard Chartered's view, indicating a deviation from the four-year cycle and noting strong institutional support despite market corrections.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $92,686, with ongoing resistance noted at key Fibonacci levels.

Bitcoin price prediction Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered Revises Bitcoin Predictions

In a note shared on social media by Matthew Sigel, the head of research at VanEck, Standard Chartered declared that the traditional cycle of Bitcoin halving is being overshadowed by flows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The bank stated, “With the rise of ETF purchases, we believe that the Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer a significant factor in price determination. The reasoning from earlier cycles, which did not involve US ETFs — such as prices peaking around 18 months after each halving and subsequently declining — no longer applies as we see it.”

The report also mentioned that it will require breaking the current all-time high of $126,000, reached on October 6, 2025, to validate this new perspective. They expect this break to occur in the first half of 2026.

In light of these changes, the bank updated its multi-year Bitcoin price projections. According to the data provided by Sigel, Standard Chartered has reduced its 2025 forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, its 2026 target from $300,000 to $150,000, its 2027 estimate from $400,000 to $225,000, its 2028 prediction from $500,000 to $300,000, and its 2029 forecast from $500,000 to $400,000, while maintaining its $500,000 target for 2030.

Bitcoin price predictions by Standard Chartered

Bitcoin price predictions by Standard Chartered | Source: X @matthew_sigel

Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, described the recent price decline as painful yet not indicative of a fundamental problem. He referred to the current market condition as “a cold breeze,” explicitly dismissing the idea of entering a new "crypto winter," and noted that the extent of the current pullback aligns with historical corrections seen during previous bull markets.

He also highlighted that lower valuations among Bitcoin treasury companies have limited their ability to act as significant marginal buyers, positioning spot ETFs as the main catalyst for short-term price increases.

Bernstein Supports Standard Chartered’s View

This downgrade mirrors a broader reevaluation happening on Wall Street. The day before, on December 8, Sigel noted in a separate commentary from Bernstein that reached similar conclusions regarding Bitcoin’s market dynamics.

Bernstein suggested that “the Bitcoin cycle has deviated from its usual four-year trend and is now in an extended bull cycle, characterized by more persistent institutional buying that mitigates retail panic selling.”

In spite of an approximate 30% market correction, Bernstein reported less than 5% in outflows from ETFs, leading them to adjust their 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000 and predict a potential peak in 2027 at $200,000, while keeping a long-term outlook of about $1,000,000 per Bitcoin by 2033.

Both institutions, Standard Chartered and Bernstein, present a unified structural narrative: the Bitcoin halving alone no longer fully accounts for its price developments. Instead, ETF inflows, institutional positioning, and balance-sheet considerations have become key factors, even though their specific price forecasts and timelines may differ.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin was trading at $92,686.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin continues to face resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, one-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com