Standard Chartered Raises Concerns: Major Bitcoin Buyer Withdraws

Standard Chartered has revised its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions, indicating that a significant source of recent demand—corporate Bitcoin purchases—may be waning.

Key Takeaways

Standard Chartered has reduced its Bitcoin price forecasts and is moving the timeline for a $500,000 Bitcoin to 2030.
The bank cites declining corporate Bitcoin purchases as a significant factor in this adjustment.
Future Bitcoin price increases are expected to be driven mainly by ETF investments rather than corporate buying.
Standard Chartered remains optimistic about long-term Bitcoin potential but anticipates a slower progression than previously thought.

The bank now asserts that future Bitcoin price growth will primarily depend on inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could lead to a more gradual increase in prices in the coming years.

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In a recent analysis, Geoff Kendrick, the Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, revealed the bank's updated stance on Bitcoin's market dynamics. Standard Chartered believes that the substantial returns seen in Bitcoin are likely over for now, with the bank lowering its year-end price targets for the years 2026 through 2029.

“While the recent drop in Bitcoin prices has been swift, it falls within anticipated limits. We believe that further corporate Bitcoin purchases will be unlikely, as current valuations do not support it. This will leave ETF investments, which may increase at a slower pace than initially expected, to be the main driver for price hikes moving forward. We are therefore adjusting our year-end price forecasts for 2026-2029, and we are pushing back our $500,000 price forecast to 2030. This isn’t a crypto winter; it’s just a brisk chill,” Kendrick explained.

Despite recent price fluctuations, which have affected investor confidence, Standard Chartered contends that the current sell-off aligns with historical patterns and does not indicate a fundamental downturn. Kendrick pointed out that Bitcoin has experienced a 36% drop from its all-time high on October 6, which is comparable to previous declines following the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

"While Bitcoin's recent price action has proven challenging, the rapid decline still aligns with what we consider 'normal' expectations," Kendrick remarked, noting that similar pullbacks have been observed over the last two years.

The timing of Bitcoin's peak has sparked renewed concerns about the possibility of a crypto winter, particularly since Bitcoin reached its peak roughly 18 months after the halving event in April 2024—a recurring pattern in past cycles.

"The losses coinciding with the October 6 high raises fears about a potential 'crypto winter' due to its alignment with the halving's timeline," Kendrick noted.

However, Standard Chartered disputes the notion that the traditional halving-driven cycle continues to be the primary influence on Bitcoin's pricing dynamics. "We don’t believe the halving cycle remains valid. Instead, we consider long-term ETF investments to be a far more crucial factor in driving prices," he emphasized.

A more concerning aspect, as highlighted by Standard Chartered, is the apparent cessation of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by publicly listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Kendrick mentioned that their valuations no longer support further expansions, despite the important role these companies played in demand over the previous year.

"While we believe extensive selling from these companies is not likely, we do not foresee them being a price support factor in the near future," Kendrick added.

With corporate purchases of Bitcoin declining, he believes that Bitcoin's price path will now rely almost exclusively on ETF activity. “Consequently, we anticipate that future increases in Bitcoin pricing will predominantly stem from ETF investments,” he stated.

This new outlook has led Standard Chartered to alter its earlier projections significantly. “As a result, we are reducing our year-end price forecasts for 2026-2029, and we now expect Bitcoin to hit our target of $500,000 only by 2030, moving it back from 2028,” Kendrick concluded.

Nevertheless, he reassured that the bank remains confident about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, albeit with a more extended timeline. “We believe that achieving this target is still within reach as the relationship between Bitcoin and gold demonstrates that global investment portfolios are currently underweight in Bitcoin. Although gaining access to these investments and making informed decisions will take time, we foresee substantial Bitcoin appreciation in the future,” he remarked.