Strengthening Ethereum Market: Binance Outflows Indicate Long-Term Confidence

Ethereum is making an effort to reclaim the $3,000 mark after displaying signs of bullish momentum over the weekend. Although buyers briefly pushed the price higher, the upward momentum has struggled to gain traction, and ETH remains vulnerable below this psychological level. As market volatility decreases, the conviction among traders appears shaky. Numerous analysts are now predicting lower prices, asserting that the recent rebounds lack the follow-through necessary to push the broader market back into a sustained upward trend.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum is目前尝试回升至$3,000水平，面临挑战。
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator indicates modest unrealized gains for ETH holders.
Recent Binance outflows suggest reduced selling pressure, indicating more ETH may be stored long-term.
Ethereum's price is consolidating around $3,000-$3,100, a critical support level that reflects market balance.

Ethereum Market Structure Strengthens: Binance Netflows Point to Long-Term Conviction

On-chain data sheds light on this market hesitation. A recent report from CryptoQuant highlights that Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator is still in positive territory, currently hovering around 0.22. This indicates that the average ETH holder is experiencing unrealized gains, though these profits are relatively modest. Historically, this range is associated with cautious optimism rather than euphoria, suggesting that the market is neither panicking nor overheating.

Ethereum is at a critical juncture. While investors are no longer capitulating, they are also not aggressively pursuing upward momentum. With profits still within reach and mixed market sentiment, ETH’s forthcoming movements are likely contingent upon buyers regaining confidence and absorbing lingering selling pressure. Until that happens, the market will continue to oscillate between hope and uncertainty.

Exchange Outflows Indicate Strategic Repositioning

A report from Arab Chain shows that when combining Ethereum’s NUPL data with exchange netflow metrics from Binance, we can gain a clearer understanding of the current market dynamics. Recent findings reveal that Ethereum exchange netflows have consistently shown net outflows, with frequent negative readings indicating that more ETH is being withdrawn from Binance than deposited. This behavior typically correlates with reduced immediate selling pressure, especially when accompanied by a stable, positive NUPL reading.

Ethereum Exchange Netflow | Source: CryptoQuant

What makes this scenario significant is the lack of a sharp rise in NUPL despite these outflows. Historically, substantial withdrawals during times of increasing unrealized profits were often associated with aggressive profit-taking and a euphoric market sentiment. However, that pattern is absent currently. The data indicates that holders are opting to maintain their positions rather than exit. It appears that ETH is being moved off exchanges for long-term storage, staking, or engagement within the broader Ethereum ecosystem, rather than for immediate liquidation.

This combination of sustained exchange outflows and restrained NUPL levels indicates a healthier market structure. While profits exist for holders, they are not excessive, and selling pressure on Binance remains limited. Consequently, the likelihood of sudden, sell-driven market corrections decreases. The medium-term outlook for Ethereum is becoming increasingly reliant on structural and fundamental factors rather than short-term speculative behavior or emotional market swings.

Ethereum is Consolidating Near a Key Inflection Point

Looking at Ethereum’s weekly chart, the price is attempting to stabilize between the $3,000 and $3,100 range after a volatile multi-month decline from the 2025 highs near $4,800. This range has emerged as a significant technical pivot, closely aligned with the rising 200-week moving average, which historically serves as a long-term trend indicator. Currently, ETH is trading just above this level, implying that bullish sentiment is attempting to defend structural support, though confirmation of strong momentum is still lacking.

ETH consolidates around key level | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are starting to flatten and converge near current prices, indicating a broader transition from a strong uptrend into a consolidation phase. This compression often precedes more significant directional movements. Notably, Ethereum has successfully reclaimed the 100-week average but remains below the 50-week average, underscoring the ongoing challenge of re-establishing a sustained bullish trend.

Trading volume has declined from the aggressive selling witnessed during the downturn, suggesting less forced selling rather than active accumulation. This supports the notion that the market is digesting prior gains instead of initiating a fresh, impulsive trend.

From a structural perspective, maintaining levels above the $2,900–$3,000 range keeps the long-term uptrend intact. However, failing to reclaim the $3,300–$3,500 resistance range could leave ETH vulnerable to prolonged consolidation. Currently, price movements signal a state of balance rather than a definitive resolution.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com