Thanksgiving and Bitcoin: A Historical Perspective on Market Trends

Thanksgiving and Bitcoin: A Historical Perspective on Market Trends

Bitcoin is entering the Thanksgiving period with renewed energy, having risen over 13% from recent lows near $80,000 to trade above $91,000.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin has gained over 13% heading into Thanksgiving, reigniting hopes that this year might challenge the holiday's bearish trend.
Historically, the Thanksgiving period has been unfavorable for Bitcoin, with an average loss of 0.8%.
Analysts warn of potential downside risks towards $81,000 unless Bitcoin can recapture the $100,000–$105,000 range.

Traditionally, Thanksgiving has not favored Bitcoin, but the recent rally is giving traders a glimmer of hope that 2025 could defy this trend.

Bitcoin's Thanksgiving Rally: Past Patterns and Current Sentiment

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards points out that Bitcoin is once again following its expected trend, displaying a bullish rally on Wednesday as Thanksgiving approaches.

“Look, we just had a bullish Wednesday too,” he noted on X, referencing historical data that often shows market strength prior to the holiday but a decline on the actual day.

The historical data remains largely bearish. Bitcoin has only recorded gains on Thanksgiving twice in the past decade, with significant drops in years like 2018 and 2020.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades emphasizes that the average performance for Bitcoin on Thanksgiving is a negative 0.8%, substantiating the day’s label as a seasonal challenge.

However, this year, traders are less focused on the date and more on future price movements. Bitcoin is currently just 4% below its previous peak daily close of over $95,000 from last November, bringing the long-anticipated $100,000 mark back into play.

“We have never yet had a $100K Bitcoin Thanksgiving,” analyst Terence Michael noted, urging traders to stay vigilant despite any short-term fluctuations.

Cautions and Resistance Levels

Other analysts take a more cautious approach. Analyst Jelle points to resistance levels between $91,000 and $93,000, signaling that with US markets closed for the holiday, prices may exhibit sideways movement. “Expecting chop below the resistance until after the holiday,” he remarked.

On-chain data offers little reassurance for bullish traders eyeing the weekend. Analytics firm Glassnode cautions that Bitcoin remains structurally weak after failing to maintain its 50-week moving average and significant cost-basis levels.

Glassnode compares the current situation to early 2022 when diminishing demand led to an extended decline. The loss ratios for short-term holders have fallen to just 0.07x, suggesting a drop in both liquidity and market confidence.

If selling pressure increases, Glassnode predicts Bitcoin may revisit its “true market mean” around $81,000. To regain a bullish sentiment, buyers must reclaim the range of $100,000 to $105,000, a crucial area linked to long-term trend support.

Potential Liquidity Rebound in Crypto Markets

In notable news, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood forecasts that the current liquidity constraints affecting the crypto and AI markets will soon reverse, driven by expected Federal Reserve policy changes before the year's end.

Despite the downturn, her firm has been actively purchasing crypto equities, investing over $93 million in a single day this week across underperforming digital asset stocks.

During ARK’s November market webinar, Wood outlined three temporary liquidity hurdles she believes will be resolved quickly through Federal Reserve initiatives and renewed government spending.

She anticipates that the Federal Reserve will conclude its quantitative tightening measures at the upcoming meeting on December 10, alleviating one of the major pressures.

With the conclusion of the government shutdown that caused a buildup in the Treasury General Account, funds are now returning to circulation, further supporting market liquidity.