The Implications of a Negative Bitcoin Price Close in 2025: Insights from Analysts

As we approach the end of 2025, Bitcoin is experiencing a unique situation. After reaching a new all-time high in October, the price has since decreased, causing uncertainty about whether this year will close on a negative note. This scenario raises important questions about the interpretation of Bitcoin's price movements and future trends. According to one analyst, the implications of a red close may not be as severe as they seem, potentially signaling the onset of a bear market.

Key Takeaways

A negative close for Bitcoin in 2025 may indicate a bear market rather than a broken cycle.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a pattern of three consecutive positive years followed by one negative year.
A yearly red candle could signal indecision and potential trend reversals in Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin's price action aligns with past cycles, suggesting a significant correction is on the horizon for 2026.

Bitcoin

Understanding Bitcoin's Price Cycle

Bitcoin's long-term price movements have typically shown a consistent pattern: after three years of upward movement, a downward correction often follows. This pattern has occurred multiple times since 2011, leading many investors to anticipate a similar structure in the current cycle. Currently, after both 2023 and 2024 ended positively, 2025 appears set to depart from this tradition by concluding negatively.

Crypto analyst CryptoBullet suggests that if Bitcoin closes in the red for 2025, it confirms a transition into a bear market phase rather than indicating the failure of the four-year cycle. This perspective highlights a common misconception—that the yearly candle's color is the most significant factor. Instead, what truly matters is the formation of cycle highs and lows throughout Bitcoin's price history.

CryptoBullet elaborates that a negative close in 2025 would likely result in a doji candlestick, which in technical analysis signifies indecision after previous upward momentum and can often herald trend reversals. He points out that Bitcoin may have already achieved its cycle high earlier in October when the price peaked at $126,080. Following previous patterns, Bitcoin typically enters a correction phase after reaching a new high in the post-halving year, regardless of how that year ultimately closes.

Bitcoin price 1 Bitcoin Chart Image From X. Source: @CryptoBullet1

Looking Ahead to Bitcoin in 2026

In response to inquiries regarding his technical analysis shared on X, CryptoBullet reiterated his earlier forecast from December 2, asserting that Bitcoin's cycle peak has already been reached. After opening 2025 at approximately $93,396, Bitcoin's price has dropped significantly from its October high, resembling the post-peak consolidation pattern observed in 2019.

During that earlier cycle, Bitcoin spent several months trading roughly 30% below its peak while alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), as shown through the OTHERS/BTC chart, began forming a market bottom and subsequent recovery. CryptoBullet believes a similar scenario is occurring now, albeit on a larger scale, with altcoins lagging behind Bitcoin for nearly four years.

Bitcoin price 2 Bitcoin Bear Market Setup. Source: @CryptoBullet1 on X

Given this market structure, CryptoBullet predicts a brief "dead cat bounce" in early 2026, which may involve a temporary revival in altcoins before a more extensive correction overtakes Bitcoin during the ongoing bear market.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price drops below $88,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com