The Rise of Dormant Bitcoin: Key Insights from the Whale Awakening

In July 2025, Bitcoin analysts noted a significant movement of dormant coins from Satoshi-era wallets, marking a rare occasion in the cryptocurrency landscape. This event raised questions about Bitcoin ownership, liquidity, and the implications for market dynamics. Understanding how these movements are tracked can shed light on the behavior of cryptocurrency holders and the overall market.

Key Takeaways

Whale Awakening Observed: Over 80,000 BTC were moved from dormant wallets in July 2025 after 14 years of inactivity, valued at approximately $8.6 billion.
Ownership Concentration: A small number of wallets control a significant portion of Bitcoin supply; just 83 wallets hold about 11.2% of all BTC.
Analytical Tools: Tools such as HODL Waves and various metrics (like Coin Days Destroyed) help to measure and understand coin age and movements in the market.
Market Dynamics: The movement of dormant coins does not necessarily indicate a sell-off; many coins are being moved into managed custodial setups.
For Everyday Users: It’s important to analyze whale metrics with a critical eye, considering broader patterns and market trends rather than reacting to isolated events.

The “Whale Awakening” in Numbers

In July 2025, analysts closely monitored eight wallets, dating back to the Satoshi era, each containing 10,000 BTC. This marked the first time these wallets had moved their funds in 14 years. The total movement of 80,000 Bitcoin, worth around $8.6 billion at the time, derived from addresses dating back to 2011, when the coins were purchased for a mere $210,000. This equates to a staggering return of nearly 4,000,000%.

Additionally, two more separate wallets, also inactive since 2011, were reactivated in the same month. With Bitcoin priced at approximately $108,000 each address now commanded over $1 billion. Data from Lookonchain and Whale Alert shows that over 62,800 BTC were transferred from wallets older than seven years in early to mid-2025; this represents more than double the amount seen in the same timeframe the previous year, according to MarketWatch.

The so-called “whale awakening” signifies a trend where long-dormant coins are being activated, leading to a decrease in long-term holder balances. This shift raises pertinent questions for everyday users regarding Bitcoin ownership concentration and the impact of dormant balances when they come back into circulation.

Did you know? Recent analyses indicate that just 83 wallets command 11.2% of all Bitcoin supply, with the top four wallets alone holding about 3.23%.

How Analysts Measure Whale Activity and Dormancy

Bitcoin's design allows for visible dormancy; every coin exists as an unspent transaction output (UTXO) with an accompanying timestamp of its last movement, creating a record of coin "ages." A fundamental tool in this analysis is HODL Waves, introduced by Dhruv Bansal at Unchained Capital and further developed by Glassnode. HODL Waves categorize coins into age bands (e.g., 1 day-1 week, 1-3 months) to visualize holding and spending patterns over time.

Inside these analytics are critical metrics such as:

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): This metric calculates the number of coins moved multiplied by how long they've been inactive, giving greater emphasis to older coins.
Age Consumed and Dormant Circulation: Models from Santiment apply similar principles, with significant spikes often denote the spending of long-held coins.

To differentiate between whales and regular traders, analytics firms categorize holders by their duration of coin holding and their entity type. Glassnode, for example, classifies coins as long-term holders (LTH) once held for about 155 days, based on historical behavior discussed in their Insights.

Did you know? Different analytics firms establish different thresholds for identifying whales, with some considering those holding 1,000+ BTC or those between 100-10,000 BTC.

These analytical tools serve to illustrate the concentration of holdings, the vintage of the Bitcoin supply, and the timing of old coins' reactivation. However, they do not dictate how individuals should manage their assets.

Insights from Whale Reactivation Data (2024-2025)

Understanding the current cycle requires determining whether this resurgence is fundamentally different from previous trends or merely reflects higher dollar values. Onchain analysis reveals:

The long-term holder supply tracked by Glassnode reached record highs in late 2024 before rolling over into 2025.
Concurrently, the illiquid supply metric began to decline, indicating that previously sidelined long-term coins are finally starting to shift.

HODL Waves data shows a slight decrease in the share of supply held for over five years, juxtaposed with increases in the 6-12 month and 1-2-year bands. This pattern often indicates that very old coins are being spent, then transitioning into newer wallets rather than immediately entering exchanges.

Noteworthy cases include:

Large Satoshi-era wallets moving tens of thousands of BTC after years of inactivity, correlating with a consistent increase in the movement of 7-10-year-old coins.
Various wallets from 2011 to 2013, holding 1,000-10,000 BTC, have been reactivated, reinforcing the sense of an awakening of early cycle supply rather than an isolated event.

Crucially, the movement of dormant coins does not inherently mean they are being sold. Firms that specialize in tagging addresses can identify if the coins moved to exchange wallets, crypto ETFs, or remain within self-custody constructs, often leading to no immediate inflow into exchanges.

The patterns of dormant coin movement suggest:

An increasing foundation of long-term holders has accumulated over previous cycles.
A visible yet tempered reduction in this group.
A gradual transfer of very old coins into new ownership.

Analysts term this combination as a whale awakening—a time when historical supply gradually shifts and can be tracked directly onchain.

Reasons for Current Whale Movements

While blockchain data cannot reveal intentions, it highlights how whale behavior aligns with various incentives. Analysts like Glassnode have noted that long-term holder supply typically peaks leading up to new all-time highs before entering a distribution phase. At these moments, long-term holders often realize substantial unrealized gains.

For early adopters who have held their Bitcoins for seven to ten years, even modest sales could realize significant profits without fully abandoning Bitcoin. Some dormant coins have transitioned into regulated setups like institutional custody or ETFs, indicating a shift from personal cold storage to organized entities.

Factors such as tax events, legal disputes, estate planning, and corporate restructuring can compel previously untouched coins into action. Whale movements frequently coincide with public legal or regulatory developments, as compliance can call dormant balances into activity, irrespective of ongoing investment strategies.

As noted by Unchained Capital's framework analyzing lost coins, each market cycle tends to add more long-held coins. Some are indeed lost, while others belong to individuals, businesses, or estates. More holders eventually undergo rebalancing or upgrades in custody, creating more frequent awakenings each year, even if they represent a smaller fraction of total supply.

It’s essential to recognize that these explanations can coexist, and none can be validated solely from onchain data. While it can track coin movements, it does not elucidate the reasons behind each transaction.

Did you know? As of mid-2025, credible estimates indicate that between 2.3 million to 3.7 million BTC, accounting for about 18% of total supply, is irretrievably lost due to forgotten keys or inaccessible wallets.

Understanding Whale Activity for Everyday Users

For most individuals, metrics relating to whales should be used as tools for transparency and context. When observing headlines about whales selling or moving coins, consider:

Are coins flowing to exchanges, ETFs, or being reserved in new self-custody setups?
Does the movement align with broader trends in holding periods and supply dynamics, or is it an outlier observation?
Are significant metrics signaling a shift, or are they merely reflecting a momentary surge of old coins?

Recognizing the limitations of attribution is also helpful:

Terms like "exchange," "ETF," or "whale" rely on heuristics that can vary between analytics firms, leaving many large holders unclassified.
Any narrative regarding coin movement is a best guess based on data interpretation and cannot ensure accurate predictions.

Whale metrics cannot definitively project the intentions of specific holders or assure that past behaviors will recur. Building a foundational understanding of onchain concepts, augmenting personal research, and obtaining professional advice are far more reliable approaches than trying to predict the actions of large holders.