The Upcoming Bitcoin Catalyst: Insights from an Expert

John Haar, managing director at Swan Private, suggests that a new round of significant money printing could serve as a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s continued adoption. He believes this is likely to occur within the next 3 to 24 months, influenced by various factors such as geopolitical tensions, banking issues, and technological disruptions.

Key Takeaways

Haar argues that the response to COVID-19 was a significant factor in Bitcoin's increasing acceptance.
He anticipates another "big print" of money creation in the near future, influenced by various global and economic factors.
Possible triggers for this event include AI-related job losses, banking crises, and climate disasters.
Haar emphasizes the psychological aspect of market reactions and changes in investor perception over time.

The Upcoming Bitcoin Catalyst: Insights from an Expert

The Next Big Print Could Boost Bitcoin

John Haar, the managing director at Swan Private, recently discussed the implications of fiscal policies in light of recent global events. He highlighted that the monetary response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been a major driver of Bitcoin adoption. During an interview with Milk Road, Haar suggested that another large-scale initiative for money creation could be forthcoming—it's just a matter of time.

Haar describes the potential for a "big print" as an ongoing feature of our monetary system rather than an isolated prediction. He cited the stimulus and balance sheet increases during the pandemic as a turning point that altered how investors perceive the risks associated with fiat currencies.

“Just as you've noted, there have been two significant rounds of money printing within most people's lifetimes, the latest being during COVID,” Haar explained. “I witnessed firsthand the impact it had on many individuals, prompting them to reevaluate their views on money supply and fiscal policy."

One of the key elements of Haar's analysis is the importance of personal experiences of investors. He often begins discussions with new clients by asking them to share their "Bitcoin story," revealing a trend among those who entered the market after observing the government’s monetary responses during the pandemic. According to Haar, this period did not just reinforce existing beliefs for Bitcoin holders; it also attracted a new wave of investors who witnessed economic policies in action and formed their own conclusions.

Haar draws parallels between this phenomenon and historical monetary patterns. By referencing Lawrence Lappard’s work, "The Big Print," he suggests that periods of increased money creation are not outliers but recurring events. However, he is careful not to predict an immediate occurrence of this phenomenon, urging caution against alarmist views.

“I’m not suggesting that this will happen next month,” Haar cautioned. “Calls for immediate action are often premature. Yet, I do believe it's only a matter of time before we see another major intervention in monetary policy.”

Additionally, Haar emphasizes that the psychological aspect of market behavior plays a crucial role in this context. As time passes, he warns that investors may become complacent and start forgetting the extraordinary nature of past monetary responses. This fading awareness could make markets less prepared for future interventions.

In his analysis, Haar also outlines a range of potential triggers that could lead to substantial money creation. These include a significant geopolitical conflict, severe economic disruptions such as state budget shortfalls, pension issues, or disruptions caused by advancements in artificial intelligence. Other factors could be crises in regional banks, natural disasters, or even major climate events.

"The next big print is coming—keep this in mind."

Timeline: 3 to 24 months.
Possible Triggers: AI job losses, budget crises, pension insolvencies, geopolitical conflicts.

“I have a strong belief that one or several of these events will unfold,” he added.

“Throughout history, such events have frequently prompted monetary responses, underscoring the possibility of a significant financial intervention in the near term.”

As of now, Bitcoin prices hover around $70,861.

Bitcoin price chart
Bitcoin must break above $74,500, based on the 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com