Tom Lee Revises Bitcoin Predictions: Year-End $250K Call Now Just a 'Maybe'

Summary:
Tom Lee, the chairman of BitMine, has adjusted his earlier optimistic prediction for Bitcoin, now describing the possibility of reaching $250,000 by year-end as merely a "maybe." He believes Bitcoin could still be above $100,000 but acknowledges uncertainty in achieving its previous all-time high of $125,100.

Key Takeaways

Tom Lee has moderated his $250,000 Bitcoin prediction for the end of the year, now labeling it as uncertain.
He remains optimistic that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 before 2025 ends.
Bitcoin is known for making significant gains during a handful of trading sessions annually.
Historical data shows missing the best days can greatly impact returns.
Bitcoin's performance has been under pressure recently but may see improvement soon.

Tom Lee, the chairman of BitMine, has seemingly backed off his previously bold $250,000 Bitcoin forecast for the end of the year, now only regarding it as a “maybe.” He has, however, maintained that he believes Bitcoin could still see prices above $100,000 before 2025 concludes, possibly even reaching a new peak. Lee shared these thoughts during a recent interview with CNBC.

This marks the first instance in which Lee has appeared to lower his previously optimistic $250,000 prediction for Bitcoin. His forecast was among the most bullish within the crypto industry, but other crypto figures, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, expressed concerns that extraordinary events would need to take place for Bitcoin to hit that high.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin is down 1.85% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite his revised outlook, Lee expressed confidence that some of Bitcoin's most significant price movements could still occur before the year is out. With 35 days remaining in 2025, he stated, “I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end.”

Tom Lee cools on $250K Bitcoin call, year-end ATH now just a ‘maybe’

Uncertainty for Bitcoin Holders

Lee emphasized Bitcoin's historical pattern of generating substantial gains during only a few trading sessions each year. He noted that Bitcoin typically makes its most significant moves in just 10 days throughout the year. This sentiment is echoed by industry leaders; for instance, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley mentioned in a February 2024 post that missing those crucial days could result in forgoing almost all of Bitcoin's returns.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price
Source: PlanC

In 2024, Bitcoin’s best 10 trading days together yielded a remarkable return of 52%, while the remaining 355 days averaged a return of -15%. Bitcoin has faced a downward trend since October 10, influenced by a massive liquidation of $19 billion across the crypto market triggered by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. Bitcoin saw a return above $90,000 on Wednesday after experiencing six consecutive days below that mark.

This trend is noteworthy as November has historically been one of Bitcoin's strongest months since 2013, according to CoinGlass. Concurrently, economist Timothy Peterson mentioned on Monday that Bitcoin may have already reached its lowest point or could do so within this week.

Tom Lee's Track Record on Bitcoin Predictions

It’s important to note that if Bitcoin fails to meet Lee’s prediction this time, it wouldn’t be the first occasion his predictions have missed the mark. In January 2018, Lee forecasted a Bitcoin price of up to $125,000 by 2022, yet the actual all-time high that year turned out to be $17,172.

Nevertheless, Lee has made accurate calls as well. In July 2017, he predicted that Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022 in a conservative scenario, and under a more bullish outlook, it could hit $55,000. Eventually, Bitcoin did achieve $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, as reported by CoinMarketCap.

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