Tom Lee Suggests Ethereum is Poised to Leave Crypto Winter

Summary:
Tom Lee, in a recent conference, highlighted that Ethereum may be on the verge of a significant market turnaround. He supports his viewpoint with historical market parallels and on-chain metrics that suggest the current sell-off might be nearing its end.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum’s price movements are showing a striking similarity to historical declines in the S&P 500 from 1987 and 2011.
A respected market analyst has identified a 93% correlation between Ethereum’s recent price actions and the 1987 S&P crash.
Current data indicates that Ethereum might have already hit its bottom around March 7 or is in the process of doing so.
Ethereum’s realized price sits at $2,241, signaling a significant point for investors.
Over the past decade, Ethereum has significantly outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 49,000%.

Tom Lee Suggests Ethereum is Poised to Leave Crypto Winter

Is the Ethereum Bottom In?

Tom Lee, a well-known financial analyst, spoke at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong on March 13-14, declaring that Ethereum shows signs of nearing a cyclical shift. He referenced insights from Tom DeMark, an advisor at Bitmine, who noted a remarkable similarity between Ethereum’s recent price trends and two notable declines in the S&P 500: the market crash in 1987 and the significant sell-off in 2011. According to Lee, the current setup is exceptionally tight.

“Tom DeMark is renowned for his timing skills in the market. He provided us with an analysis suggesting that over the last few months, especially since October, Ethereum’s price action mirrors what happened to the S&P 500 in 2011 and 1987,” Lee explained. “For those involved in US markets, these downturns marked significant declines in the S&P. DeMark claims there’s a 93% correlation between Ethereum’s current behavior and the S&P’s actions in 1987.”

This comparison plays a crucial role in Lee’s argument. If the 1987 comparison holds true, Lee believes Ethereum already hit its bottom on March 7. Conversely, if the 2011 comparison is more accurate, Ethereum is in the process of bottoming out. Regardless of the case, Lee concludes, “Based on this analysis, we believe we are either at the bottom or exiting the crypto winter now.”

Lee did not solely rely on historical charts. He also referenced Ethereum’s realized price, an on-chain metric that estimates the average purchase cost of coins based on their last movement on the blockchain. Currently, that figure stands at $2,241, helping investors assess how much value holders have lost.

He highlighted patterns observed at previous low points. In 2022, Ethereum dropped to a 39% discount relative to its realized price. By 2025, this discount decreased to 21% before ETH began to rise again. “At present, we’re at a 22% discount,” Lee noted, emphasizing that the market is positioned similarly to where last year's turnaround began. “So we’re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to rise again.”

Lee’s main argument is that Ethereum doesn’t necessarily require a perfect macroeconomic environment or an entirely new narrative to stabilize; it just needs to revisit the level of holder suffering that historically signifies exhaustion. He believes that threshold has already been reached.

TOM LEE:
THE ETHEREUM BOTTOM IS IN ‼️
Bitmine and Tom DeMark have analyzed Ethereum against previous S&P 500 recovery patterns.
The current structure closely resembles both the 1987 and 2011 major cycle bottoms.
🔹 93% correlation to the 1987 downturn
🔹 Alignment with the 2011 low
🔹 Realized price: $2,241
🔹 ETH approximately 22% discount

Ethereum price chart
ETH needs to surpass the 0.382 Fib, according to the 1-week chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com

Lee also encouraged a broader perspective on Ethereum's performance, reassuring investors. “Before losing hope, remember that Ethereum has outperformed every other asset class over the past decade,” he stated. “Over the last 10 years, Ethereum’s return has been an astonishing 49,000%, meaning nearly 490 times your investment.”

To provide context, he compared this to Bitcoin's impressive return of 11,000% during the same period and even spoke of Nvidia, which he labeled the top-performing stock in the US, giving it a return of 65 times the initial investment.

At the time of reporting, ETH was trading at $2,147.