Top Analyst Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin's Recovery May Be Farther Off Than Anticipated

Bitcoin is currently in a delicate position after dropping below $90,000 and settling in the mid-$80,000 range. This recent decline has left some analysts debating whether a significant rally is further away than expected.

Prominent crypto analyst Tony "The Bull" Severino shared a technical analysis that adds support to this concern. His focus is on the 6-week LMACD momentum indicator, which has crossed bearish for the first time in years.

Understanding Bitcoin's Momentum Shift on the 6-Week LMACD

Severino’s analysis delivers a strong cautionary message: Bitcoin is not poised for the explosive recovery that many traders are anticipating. He centers his argument on momentum, currently tilting downward. The recent bearish crossover on the 6-week LMACD, known for its impactful crossovers that confirm shifts in long-term trends, supports this view.

Being a lagging signal, the 6-week LMACD indicates that once it turns bearish, Bitcoin is already deep into a downturn. Historical data shows that following previous bearish crossovers, Bitcoin has experienced extended downtrends of 812 days, 861 days, and 686 days, respectively.

Since the signal reacts to price movements with a delay, Bitcoin typically reaches its lowest point long after the crossover occurs. Severino pointed out that bear-market lows often appear between 250 and 365 days after the bearish signal, not within just a few weeks. Traders who expect a bottom within 40 days after this new signal may be overlooking the historically slow response of this indicator.

BTCUSD is trading at $85,923 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

The chart highlights the severity of each downturn that follows a bearish LMACD flip. Historical patterns show price drops of approximately 69% to 75% from the point of the crossover, even if Bitcoin had already decreased significantly prior to the indicator's signal.

Please pay attention to this post if you want to understand why Bitcoin is highly unlikely to suddenly spring back into a bull run One word: Momentum The 6-week LMACD has some of the cleanest crossovers representing pivotal trend change confirmation points. The signal lags,… pic.twitter.com/mq9uR2Fqec — Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) November 22, 2025

Anticipating a Lengthy Path to Significant Recovery

While the LMACD signal has recently turned bearish, it remains unconfirmed for another 15 days. It's essential to consider its similarities to past cycles.

Severino has stated that he is not forecasting the end of Bitcoin's long-term potential but instead is advising traders against expecting a swift turnaround. Just because previous downturns led to a similar drop does not ensure the same outcome this time around, and there is no guarantee Bitcoin will fall another 70% from its current levels.

The 6-week LMACD acts as a high-timeframe signal, capturing changes that reflect substantial structural trends rather than momentary fluctuations. Therefore, Bitcoin may still be months away from reaching its true cycle bottom.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $85,670, showing a decline of 11% and 23% over the past week and month, respectively. Severino's analysis suggests that Bitcoin may linger at these levels or potentially decline further before any significant recovery toward a new bull market begins.

Featured image from See The Wild, chart from TradingView

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin is currently trading in the mid-$80,000s, down from $90,000.
Analyst Tony Severino warns that a significant rally may not happen soon due to a bearish crossover on the 6-week LMACD.
Historical data indicates that bear-market lows appear 250-365 days after a bearish signal.
Bitcoin's price may remain stagnant or decline further before a potential recovery.