Trump's Return to the White House: What It Means for Crypto Markets

When Donald Trump resumed his presidency, many in the crypto community anticipated a familiar outcome: pro-crypto discourse, more favorable regulations, influxes of institutional capital, and a revived appetite for risk were all expected to lead to a notable bull market.

Key Takeaways

Despite Trump's return, the crypto market is down to 20% of its peak under Biden.
Analysts argue that the current market is either "broken" or undergoing a significant shift.
The previous market conditions don't apply anymore—capital flows differently now.
Bitcoin remains stable, while altcoins struggle; the concept of an “altseason” may be outdated.
External economic factors continue to influence the market, contributing to an underwhelming end to 2025.
Investors should adapt their strategies to the new market landscape and conduct thorough research.

However, as 2025 comes to a close, the crypto landscape appears significantly diminished, standing at only 20% of its peak during the Biden administration.

Crypto Market Status: Just 20% of Biden-Era Peaks

This disparity has sparked an ongoing debate about whether the crypto market is merely in a tough phase or whether there’s a deeper, inherent issue at play. Analyst and host of Crypto Banter, Ran Neuner, declared, “It’s time to acknowledge and admit the crypto market is broken.” He pointed out an unprecedented gap between market fundamentals and prices. Neuner remarked that 2025 had all the hallmark elements for a bull market:

“Even with all the above,” he noted, “we are ending 2025 lower and only at 20% of our previous levels during Biden's rule.”

This suggests that traditional market metrics no longer seem relevant. Theories regarding four-year cycles, stagnant liquidity, or cryptocurrency experiencing a pivotal IPO moment appear to be more like rationalizations after the fact, rather than substantive explanations.

Neuner argues that the current market is faced with two potential paths ahead. In contrast, market commentator Gordon Gekko, a well-known user on X, countered that the current state is intentional and structural, rather than dysfunctional.

“Nothing is broken; this is just how market makers intended. Sentiment is at its lowest in years, and leveraged traders are losing everything. It isn’t supposed to be easy; only the strong will thrive,” Gekko stated.

This division reflects a more significant evolution in crypto’s behavior compared to previous cycles. During Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2020, the market excelled within a regulatory void, where retail speculation flourished and leverage was unchecked, driving prices well beyond fundamental values. Conversely, under Biden, the crypto market became more institutionalized. Regulation focused on enforcement limited risk-taking, while the introduction of ETFs, custodians, and regulatory compliance reshaped capital distribution.

Ironically, several of crypto's most expected advantages emerged during this tightly controlled era, leading to expansion without reflexivity.

Bitcoin Remains Steady While Altcoins Struggle in the New Crypto Environment

This new structural dynamic has proven particularly difficult for altcoins. Analysts and key opinion leaders (KOLs) like Shanaka Anslem now believe that the previous unified crypto market is no longer existent. Instead, 2025 appears to be divided into “two distinct games”:

Capital movement no longer transitions smoothly from Bitcoin to altcoins, known in the community as "alt season." Instead, capital flows directly to wherever it is most effectively utilized.

Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchain Center.Net

“Your only options now: Engage with Institutional Crypto using patience and macro awareness, or get involved in Attention Crypto, which requires speed and infrastructure,” Anslem advised.

This opinion leader suggests that holding onto altcoins based on long-term strategies is now a miscalculated approach. “You are not early to the alt season; you are simply waiting for a market structure that no longer exists,” he added.

The essence of a trader’s foresight might lie in knowing where to focus. Lisa Edwards asserts that market participants must be in tune with liquidity movements. “Things evolve, cycles change, and capital flows in different ways. If you are holding out for the past alt season, you will overlook opportunities that are unfolding right before you,” she stated.

Quinten François shares this perspective, highlighting that the number of tokens in 2025 far exceeds those of prior cycles. With over 11 million tokens available, the idea of a broad alt season reminiscent of 2017 or 2021 may simply be outdated.

Everyone keeps holding out for a classic alt season like in 2017 or 2021.
But the entire market structure has transformed.

2017 had a couple of hundred coins vying for investor capital.
2021 featured a few thousand.
2025 hosts over 11 million tokens, including memecoins and speculative experiments.

The days of ... — Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois)

Meanwhile, broader economic factors continue to impact sentiment. Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, pointed out that Bitcoin's movement toward its 100-week moving average (MA) is tied to renewed fears regarding the AI bubble, uncertainty surrounding future leadership of the Federal Reserve, and year-end tax-loss selling.

“This all contributes to a disappointing conclusion to 2025,” he stated in a recent email to BeInCrypto, warning that Bitcoin could drop below $80,000 if selling ramps up.

It remains uncertain whether the crypto market is fundamentally broken or simply undergoing transformation, so investors are encouraged to conduct their research.

Nevertheless, it is evident that expectations from the Trump era are clashing with a market structure that has evolved under Biden, rendering older strategies ineffective. Discussions among economists and investors suggest a potential period of significant repricing or an aggressive recovery rally, likely shaping the post-institutional identity of cryptocurrency.