U.S. Unemployment Rate Exceeds Expectations: Implications for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been facing downward pressure, trading below $90,000, as traders keenly monitor U.S. economic data that could influence future price movements.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently trading below $90,000 and has faced significant selling pressure.
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, surprising analysts and impacting market sentiment.
Mixed job creation figures indicate a cooling labor market.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions will likely be influenced by economic data, especially regarding unemployment and inflation.
Predictions suggest that rate cuts and liquidity measures may positively affect the cryptocurrency market.

US and Bitcoin

Analysts suggest that the latest labor market statistics and upcoming inflation reports will significantly impact the Federal Reserve's policy decisions in January 2026. Consequently, these economic indicators are critical for determining Bitcoin's short-term trajectory.

In recent months, Bitcoin has experienced a challenging period. After reaching an all-time high of $126,272 in October 2025, the leading cryptocurrency has struggled to sustain that upward momentum. Selling pressures have intensified over the past couple of months, leading to the formation of lower highs.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $87,161, reflecting a 31% decline from its October peak. December has further contributed to this downward trend, with the token experiencing a 3.57% drop so far this month. If this trend continues, this would mark Bitcoin's third consecutive monthly loss—something not seen since the Terra collapse in mid-2022.

Unemployment Rate in the U.S. Rises More Than Anticipated

Amid the bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, recent U.S. labor market data has provided some limited comfort. Today, the U.S. government released the November Employment Situation report, which had been delayed due to a government shutdown. This report revealed that the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021.

This figure surprised economists, who had anticipated the unemployment rate to remain stable between 4.4% and 4.5%. The previous rate was 4.4% in September 2025, prior to the shutdown disruptions.

Job creation figures were mixed, showing that nonfarm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, recovering from a significant loss of 105,000 jobs in October. The earlier decline was primarily due to federal government payroll reductions, amounting to between 162,000 and 168,000 positions, resulting from delayed resignations and shutdown-related issues.

Although November’s job growth exceeded lowered expectations of 45,000 to 50,000 jobs, it still suggested a cooling trend in the labor market.

In terms of wages, average hourly earnings increased by just 0.1% from the previous month, falling short of economists’ forecasts of 0.3%. Year-over-year, wages rose by 3.5%, marking the slowest growth rate since May 2021 and aligning with levels seen before the pandemic.

Kay Haigh from Goldman Sachs Asset Management noted that the Federal Reserve might not heavily weigh the November report due to the disruptions in data collection. She indicated that the employment report for December, scheduled for release in early January, would likely have a greater impact on short-term policy decisions.

Potential Impacts on Bitcoin

Ahead of the data release, research platform Bull Theory highlighted the importance of the jobs report and impending CPI figures in shaping the Fed's policy for 2026. They also raised concerns about the increasing risk of stagflation, a condition characterized by persistent inflation alongside rising unemployment.

With inflation nearing 3% and unemployment on the rise, Bull Theory argued that a reading above 4.4% would confirm weaknesses in the labor market. They believe that if the rate reaches 4.6% or higher, attention will shift from concerns about stagflation to outright recession risks.

Bull Theory explained that the Fed faces a challenging balancing act; high inflation suggests a need for tighter policy, while weakening job figures indicate a push toward easing. They asserted that market responses depend not on individual data points but on the combined trends of inflation and employment.

After the unemployment rate was confirmed at 4.6%, Bull Theory asserted that this represented a four-year high and suggested that the Federal Reserve may have erred in its policy decisions. They anticipate that future rate cuts and renewed liquidity through quantitative easing are likely, which they believe would have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.

In the 30 minutes prior to the report's release, Bitcoin saw a decline of 1.05%. However, following the report, the price recovered slightly, increasing by 0.57% in the next half-hour and an additional 0.21% shortly after. Bitcoin momentarily reached $87,347 before the increase in momentum slowed. Currently, it remains around $87,161 as investors speculate on the Federal Reserve's policy preferences for 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the opinions of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses.