Understanding Bitcoin: Key Insights for the Week Ahead

Bitcoin is navigating a pivotal moment as we approach Christmas, with bulls and bears locked in a fierce battle for market dominance.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin price targets are showing significant divergence amid growing frustration due to a lack of a decisive breakout.
Japanese bond yields reach record highs, coinciding with gold and silver achieving all-time price records.
Current indicators indicate that Bitcoin is experiencing price discovery at multiyear lows.
The Coinbase Premium is showing negative values, indicating strong selling pressure from U.S. investors.
Growing sentiment suggests possible upward momentum despite prevailing bearish views.

Diverging Bets for Bitcoin’s Year-End Performance

Bitcoin recently offered some relief to traders as it neared the $90,000 mark after struggling at the weekly close. According to data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView, BTC/USD found itself revisiting highs throughout Monday.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Traders now seem split in their outlooks: some are warning of a return to yearly lows, while others believe a bull market rebound is imminent. Trader CrypNuevo has considered both scenarios, stating that sellers have already liquidated most of their positions since Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $126,000.

“I believe that there probably isn’t much left to sell right now. So the main bearish scenario is a sweep of the lows,” he noted.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Instead, CrypNuevo sees the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near the $93,500 yearly open as a potential target. “With this information, it wouldn't surprise me to see an aggressive pump by year-end and the start of 2026,” he added.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Expectations for the coming months vary widely. Bearish trader Killa predicts a downtrend to $60,000 beginning in the first quarter of 2026.

Don’t shoot the messenger, the final boss has entered the chat. Ready for 1–2 months of chop? The big leg down to 60K starts around February-March. pic.twitter.com/VgJaNEaN8H — Killa (@KillaXBT)

In contrast, trader Roman suggests a “very boring” festive period for crypto and stocks, reminiscent of the end of Bitcoin’s previous bull cycle in 2021.

Record Prices for Gold and Silver Amid Economic Concerns

This week's U.S. macro data releases are sparse, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to pause until January. Meanwhile, fluctuations are occurring in various markets.

As the week kicks off, precious metals and developments in Japan's economy are attracting attention. Japanese ten-year bond yields have soared to a record 2.1%, following the central bank’s decision to raise interest rates to a 30-year high and prepare a $140 billion stimulus package.

“Just when you think Japan's situation can’t get worse, it gets even worse,” remarked trading resource The Kobeissi Letter on X.

BREAKING: Japan's 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to a record 2.10%, now up +100 basis points in 2025. Just when you thought Japan's situation can’t get worse, it does. pic.twitter.com/EkWvc9HnR4 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)

Uncertainty surrounding Japan often leads to weakness in crypto markets. Meanwhile, both gold and silver are setting new all-time highs; gold reached $4,420 per ounce on Monday, while silver approached the $70 mark, up nearly 150% in 2025.

XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Despite these highs, market sentiment continues to be cautious. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates just a 22% chance of the Fed cutting rates again in January.

Fed target rate probabilities for January FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market?

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant asserts that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market. Their analysis highlights the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which has remained negative since early September. This indicator contrasts traders' Profit & Loss (P&L) Index over the last 30 days against a 365-day average.

From mid-May to early September, this indicator was positive. Currently, it sits at -0.52, marking the lowest levels observed since the 2022 bear market.

“Prices enter into bear mode when the indicators switch from Bull to BEAR,” CryptoQuant explains.

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant

Additionally, contributor GugaOnChain described the current market data as indicative of a broader slowdown. Noting reduced network activity, he likens the situation to that of 2018, another year marked by Bitcoin's bear market.

“The indicators confirm a defensive scenario, and looking ahead, the comparison with 2018 suggests that periods of low activity tend to precede greater volatility,” he summarized.

Bitcoin highly active address data. Source: CryptoQuant

Weak Coinbase Premium Signals Lack of Hope

Investors in the U.S. continue to exhibit skepticism, with selling pressure from Coinbase remaining strong. According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium—a measurement of the price discrepancy between Coinbase's BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs—is still negative.

This negativity typically indicates a lack of buying interest from U.S. investors, which can stifle market momentum. “Once the $BTC sell pressure there cools off, we can finally bounce,” blockchain expert Elja Boom remarked over the weekend.

Recent readings show the Coinbase Premium dropped to -$56 on December 18 before experiencing a slight rebound. However, as of now, it remains below the levels seen when BTC/USD previously tested $80,000.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: CryptoQuant

Cautious Sentiment Ahead

As Bitcoin struggles to approach $90,000, market sentiment has seen a slight uptick, rising by nine points according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Alert: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index climbed to 25 (Extreme Fear) from 16 last week, signaling some sentiment improvement but still indicating deep levels of fear. pic.twitter.com/sJx5R9CuXV — Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph)

Despite this minor rise, the overall sentiment remains one of “extreme fear,” particularly compared to the more neutral reading of 45/100 in stocks. Many market participants speculate that further declines are probable for crypto markets, creating a cautious sentiment among traders.

Michaël van de Poppe, a crypto trader, noted, “The markets are in extreme fear, which has often been a great opportunity to see a strong move afterwards.”

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

While many believe that the price targets may return to all-time highs, research firm Santiment observes that market trends frequently deviate from mainstream sentiment. “For both swing trading and long-term strategies, prices typically follow the path that retail traders least expect,” they concluded, suggesting true volatility may lie ahead.

Crypto social media sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X