Understanding Bitcoin's Bearish Trends Following FOMC Updates

The behavior of Bitcoin around announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve has become a notable trend in the market this year. Each time the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) updates its policies, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has reacted with a significant decline. This trend highlights how closely Bitcoin is now connected to changing interest-rate expectations and overall market sentiment.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin consistently drops in response to FOMC updates, indicating its sensitivity to interest rate changes.
Upcoming FOMC meetings in 2025 may reveal clearer market trends and momentum for Bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency is moving in a volatile pattern but is forming higher lows, suggesting a potential upward trend.
The current market corrections are believed to be manipulated rather than organic, hinting at a return to normal trading conditions.
The first quarter of 2026 is expected to be pivotal in determining Bitcoin's future trajectory.

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Implications of Future FOMC Meetings on Bitcoin

According to analyst CryptoMichNL, the Federal Reserve is shifting from its 2021 liquidity settings to a more supportive approach expected in 2025. However, the effects of these changes may not be felt immediately in the markets, as adjustments take time. Following each FOMC meeting in 2025, Bitcoin has experienced drops, mainly to flush out leveraged long positions through significant liquidations.

CryptoMichNL suggests that we should expect more clarity on market movements in the next one to two weeks, which could enhance the outlook as we approach 2026. The bullish trend for Bitcoin remains, but to maintain momentum, it needs to avoid breaking recent lows during the FOMC-induced price dips. Instead, a move beyond the $92,000 resistance zone could help Bitcoin retest the $100,000 mark.

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BTC reaction to each FOMC update | Source: Chart from CryptoMichNL on X

Despite these fluctuations, Bitcoin continues to display a turbulent trading pattern driven by illiquid order books and swift price changes. CryptoMichNL emphasizes that an upward breakout for Bitcoin might be on the horizon. The cryptocurrency has been consistently forming higher lows, indicating an upward trend is developing.

The analyst also pointed out that given the price's stability, the recent sharp corrections appear to have been heavily manipulated rather than a natural occurrence, suggesting the market could be returning to typical conditions.

Stability in Bitcoin's Market Structure During Price Corrections

Bitcoin's behavior in the current cycle has been consistent with past patterns. Full-time crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades remarks that an encouraging initial bounce occurred at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which reflects the overall cycle movement. This level represents the lowest price Bitcoin could attain without breaking the broader weekly market trend.

Daan emphasized that if the market fails to uphold this higher-timeframe outlook, the November lows could present a challenging scenario for bullish traders. As we approach the year’s end, much of the selling associated with the four-year cycle is expected to lessen. Additionally, the first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be crucial, potentially providing insights into the next direction of Bitcoin's cycle.

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BTC trading at $92,339 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com