Understanding Bitcoin's Price Dynamics as Christmas 2025 Approaches

As Christmas 2025 approaches, Bitcoin finds itself in a precarious yet intriguing situation. Currently priced around $93,000 after weeks of pressure, four crucial charts reveal that the market is late in its correction phase, but a clear bullish signal is still absent.

Key Takeaways

Short-term holders are struggling, with substantial losses as Bitcoin trades below their entry prices.
New whales have recently liquidated at significant losses, suggesting a shift in the holder base.
Macro conditions, particularly real interest rates, are affecting Bitcoin's price trends and overall market sentiment.
Spot Taker buyers are beginning to return, indicating potential stabilization and a shift in market dynamics.

The data indicates three significant forces at play: recent buyers are experiencing substantial losses, new large investors, known as whales, are capitulating, and macroeconomic conditions continue to influence prices, although spot buying strength is quietly returning.

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Experiencing Significant Losses

The first chart illustrates short-term holder (STH) realized profit and loss. This category includes coins purchased in recent months, and their “realized price” represents the average cost basis for these coins.

Earlier in 2025, short-term holders enjoyed considerable gains, with their positions averaging 15-20% in profit as Bitcoin ascended. This led to profit-taking and increased selling pressure as prices peaked.

Currently, the situation has reversed; Bitcoin is trading below the STH realized price, leading to a roughly 10% loss for this group. The chart reflects a deep loss environment, marked by a red histogram, indicating one of the lowest points in 2025.

This scenario has two immediate implications:

These holders are likely to sell during any price rebounds, aiming to exit at breakeven, which could limit upward movements toward their entry range.
Prolonged loss pockets typically emerge later during corrections, signaling that weaker investors have already incurred significant losses.

Notably, 75% of Short-Term Holder's coins are currently underwater (over 4.36 million BTC).

Historically, a crucial recovery signal occurs when the price reclaims the STH realized price from below, suggesting that forced selling has diminished and new demand is absorbing the supply. Until this occurs, caution and range trading at current levels may remain prudent.

New Bitcoin Whales Have Recently Surrendered

The second chart examines realized profit and loss among whale cohorts, distinguishing between “new whales” and “old whales.” New whales refer to large holders who have accumulated their Bitcoin recently.

Recently, new whales experienced $386 million in losses in just one day, depicted as a large negative spike on the chart. This trend of negative spikes aligns with recent market lows. In contrast, old whales are displaying smaller, more balanced realized losses and profits, indicating they are not exiting as quickly as the newcomers.

This behavior is typical at the later stages of a correction. New whales tend to purchase Bitcoin late in the cycle, sometimes using leverage or following strong narratives. When prices decline, they are often the first to capitulate.

However, this capitulation also brings structural benefits, as coins shift from weaker large hands to more robust holders or smaller buyers. In the short term, these sell-offs might still push prices down, but in the medium term, they can enhance the quality of Bitcoin's holder base. The market tends to become more resilient once the panicked large sellers have exited.

Real Interest Rates Continue to Guide Bitcoin Pricing

The third chart overlays Bitcoin prices with inverted two-year US real yields. Real yields indicate interest rates adjusted for inflation. Over the year, this series has closely correlated with BTC prices.

As real yields decline, the inverted line rises. This suggests that Bitcoin appreciates alongside improved liquidity conditions since lower real yields make risk assets, like Bitcoin, more appealing compared to safe bonds.

Since late summer, however, real yields have experienced an increase. The inverted line trended downward, and Bitcoin followed this decline, illustrating that macro conditions continue to dominate the overall trend.

Merely cutting Federal Reserve rates may not suffice. The critical factor is how markets perceive the evolution of real borrowing costs. If inflation expectations fall quicker than nominal rates, real yields might continue to rise.

For Bitcoin to initiate a sustainable new bull phase, easier real conditions will likely be necessary. Until the bond markets reflect this shift, BTC rallies may face ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.

Spot Taker Buyers Are Resuming Activity

The fourth chart monitors 90-day Spot Taker CVD on major exchanges. CVD measures the net volume of market orders that cross the spread, indicating whether aggressive buyers or sellers are in control.

During the recent downturn, the market experienced a Taker Sell Dominant phase, illustrated by red bars reflecting selling pressure throughout spot markets. This trend coincided with Bitcoin’s gradual decline.

Currently, the signal has shifted, moving toward Taker Buy Dominant, as green bars appear, indicating that aggressive buyers now outnumber aggressive sellers.

This shift is an early yet significant change. Market trend reversals typically start with microstructure changes like this — first, buyers return, leading to price stabilization, followed by larger inflows.

However, relying on a single day's data is inadequate. A sustained green regime is necessary to confirm that real demand has indeed returned, demonstrating that spot markets are absorbing supply from short-term holders and capitulating whales.

Conclusion: Bitcoin's Price Outlook as Christmas Approaches

In summary, the four charts collectively paint a picture of a late-stage correction, rather than signaling the onset of a new bull market. Short-term holders and new whales are grappling with considerable losses and continue to sell into any price strength. Macro conditions, reflected through real yields, limit risk appetite in the broader market.

Conversely, some early signs of recovery are emerging. The capitulation of new whales is cleaning up the holder base, while spot taker buyers are returning, which could lessen the downside momentum.

As Christmas 2025 nears, Bitcoin appears range-bound with a slightly bearish outlook, hovering around $90,000. Downward movements into the mid or high-$80,000s remain possible if real yields remain elevated. A clear bullish shift will likely require three signals:

The price must surpass and hold above the short-term holders' realized price.
Two-year real yields should decline to ease financial conditions.
Taker Buy dominance needs to persist, confirming strong demand in spot markets.

Until these conditions align, traders should brace for a volatile market influenced by macroeconomic data and reluctant holders. For long-term investors, this period may serve as a strategic planning phase rather than an opportunity for aggressive investing.