Unlikely Major Capitulation for Crypto Markets, Says Lyn Alden

Summary: According to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, the possibility of a significant downturn in Bitcoin or the broader cryptocurrency market appears low at this time. She argues that current market conditions don’t warrant expectations of a major capitulation, a view supported by other industry experts.

Key Takeaways

Lyn Alden believes that the current market isn’t likely to experience major capitulation.
Alden argues that the four-year cycle theory may not be applicable as broader macroeconomic factors are at play.
Other industry voices, like Sigma Capital's Vineet Budki, predict a potential Bitcoin price retracement of 65% to 70% in the coming years.
Alden emphasizes that market outcomes typically fall between extremes of investor expectations.
She anticipates Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2026.

Crypto conditions signal unlikely chance of ‘major capitulation’: Lyn Alden

Bullish vs. Bearish Market Perspectives

Lyn Alden, a noted macroeconomist, recently shared her insights on the cryptocurrency market in an episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast. She expressed that a significant crash for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market doesn't seem imminent. “We haven’t reached euphoric levels in this cycle; thus, there’s less reason to believe that major capitulation is on the horizon,” Alden stated.

Alden further suggested that the market could continue longer than many anticipate, arguing that the current trend is not merely a result of the Bitcoin halving but is influenced by broader macroeconomic factors and the overall interest in cryptocurrency. This perspective aligns with sentiments expressed by other industry leaders, including Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer of Bitwise, who recently dismissed the four-year cycle theory, indicating that the market might remain stable for several more years.

Cryptocurrencies _Lyn Alden discussed her views during a podcast with Danny Knowles. Source:_What Bitcoin Did

Diverging Opinions on Market Trends

Despite Alden's outlook, not everyone agrees that major capitulation is off the table. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, recently told Cointelegraph that he anticipates a Bitcoin retracement of 65% to 70% within the next two years.

Alden pointed out that market outcomes typically fall between expected extremes. “These situations rarely play out as well or as poorly as investors imagine,” she noted. Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing a downtrend, having fallen from new all-time highs of $125,100 on October 5 to a low of $80,700 before slightly recovering to $85,710, as reported by CoinMarketCap.

Cryptocurrencies _Bitcoin is down 22.46% in the past 30 days. Source:_CoinMarketCap

The Reality of Market Cycles

The recent decline in Bitcoin's price has many traders wondering when the next upward trend will occur. However, Alden urged investors to reconsider their mindset towards bull markets. "People often get it into their heads that they are entitled to a bull market," she remarked. “No one is owed a bull market.”

Looking ahead, Alden predicts that Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark by 2026, potentially setting new all-time highs either that year or in 2027.

Magazine:__Will Bitcoin hit $200K soon or wait until 2029? Insights from Scott Bessent at Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 16 – 22