US Jobs Data Eases Key Risks for Bitcoin and the Crypto Market

Bitcoin remained above the $90,000 mark on Friday, thanks to new US labor market statistics indicating slower hiring without signs of a major economic downturn. This report alleviated a significant downside risk for the crypto market, but conditions are not yet set for a swift movement back toward the $100,000 level.

Key Takeaways

Stable Conditions: New US jobs data trimmed risks for Bitcoin as it holds above $90,000.
Job Market Performance: December's weak job growth indicates economic cooling, avoiding severe downturns.
Investor Caution: Large Bitcoin holders show reluctance to buy, impacting demand for a price surge.
Focus on Future Catalysts: Bitcoin's ascent to $100K hinges on capital flows and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.

Labor Market Insights Reduce Recession Fears

In December, the US economy added 50,000 jobs, marking one of the weakest monthly job additions in years. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%, and wage growth remained steady at 3.8% year-over-year.

US Unemployment Rate Falls. Source: Reuters

The market interpreted these figures as a sign of a cooling labor market rather than a collapsing one, allowing risk assets like Bitcoin to stabilize. Throughout the session, Bitcoin traded between $89,000 and $92,000.

The lower payroll numbers eased concerns about an overheating economy, which could prompt stricter monetary policies. Additionally, it diminished the risk of an unexpected growth shock that might trigger significant market selling, which is crucial for Bitcoin. In the past year, Bitcoin has faced severe declines following indicators of either extreme inflation or rapid economic contraction. The latest data showed neither.

Although unemployment dipped slightly, job growth has slowed, hinting that the economy is losing momentum yet remains stable. This scenario supports the idea of a “soft landing” instead of a recession. Consequently, Bitcoin avoided a risk-off movement that could have pushed its price back toward the low-$80,000s.

Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, stated, “With Bitcoin already increasing over 7% in the early days of 2026, the path of least resistance appears to lead toward the $100,000 psychological barrier. If unemployment continues to stabilize and inflation declines, we anticipate a definitive breakout beyond $100,000 and a retest of the $110,000 psychological threshold that previously functioned as an all-time high. This level is particularly significant; being a past all-time high means it is crucial for Bitcoin to surpass it in order to build investor confidence in maintaining higher prices.”

Challenges Ahead for Bitcoin’s Pursuit of $100,000

While the recent report has alleviated one downside risk, it hasn't introduced a new catalyst for upward momentum. With wage growth sitting at 3.8%, inflation in services remains persistent, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its current stance rather than hasten towards rate cuts.

Bitcoin has historically surged when markets anticipate decreasing interest rates and increasing liquidity. However, the data from Friday did not bolster this narrative. Instead, it suggests a prolonged pause in policy, limiting the chances for a rapid liquidity-driven ascent to $100,000.

Large Bitcoin investors appear hesitant to buy the dip, with addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC decreasing by 220,000 BTC year-over-year—the fastest decline since early 2023. A similar situation in 2021-2022 preceded the market peak.

Bitcoin’s route back to the six-figure territory now relies more on capital flows and expectations regarding interest rates. Sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could generate the demand necessary to break through the $95,000 resistance level. A more clear indication that the Federal Reserve intends to cut rates could also provide needed support.

For the time being, the latest jobs report helps maintain Bitcoin's stability above $90,000, alleviating the risk of an abrupt macroeconomic shock. However, it has yet to ignite the momentum needed for a clean breakout to the $100,000 mark.