VALR CEO’s Optimistic Bitcoin Outlook Faces Short-Term Challenges

Bitcoin's price is currently stabilizing following a minor 1% day-on-day decline, even as a bold macro prediction made by Farzam Ehsani, the CEO of VALR, captures attention. His forecast indicates significant potential for Bitcoin once capital shifts away from precious metals. However, Bitcoin must navigate a few short-term pressures before this scenario can develop.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price is stabilizing following a minor decline.
VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani predicts significant Bitcoin upside once capital shifts from precious metals.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have stopped selling, reducing supply pressure.
Short-term holders control price behavior and are currently at a critical break-even level.
Key price points to watch for Bitcoin are $99,400 and $101,600, which could signal a bullish continuation.

Understanding the VALR CEO's Perspective on Bitcoin's Delayed Upside

Ehsani believes that the key to understanding Bitcoin's future lies more in capital movement than in immediate chart patterns. In an exclusive interview with BeInCrypto, he stated, “Aggressive price growth in Bitcoin and Ethereum is likely to begin after the rally in precious metals fades.”

He attributes Bitcoin's current stagnation to the shifts in global capital, explaining, “Over the past year, gold prices have risen by 69%, while silver has surged by 161%. As a result, the upside momentum in leading crypto assets has somewhat stalled.” This connection is evident in the data, which shows Bitcoin’s short-term correlation with gold sitting at around −0.11, indicating that the two assets are moving in slightly opposite directions. The focus on metals during periods of geopolitical stress and tight liquidity may have lessened the urgency for crypto investments.

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Ehsani emphasizes that he does not view this as a fundamental weakness: “Long-term Bitcoin holders have stopped selling for the first time since July,” he remarked. This effectively decreases supply pressure. He describes the current environment as “a calm before the storm, typically followed by a broader crypto market rally,” forecasting that Bitcoin could reach $130,000 by the first quarter of 2026. However, he also notes that this anticipated rise will likely require a shift in the price dynamics of gold and silver.

The macro perspective is clear: Bitcoin’s upward movement is being delayed by capital allocation but is not fundamentally challenged. Nevertheless, there are some on-chain obstacles to consider.

The Role of Short-Term Holders and Their Influence on Bitcoin Prices

While long-term holders have remained inactive in selling, short-term holders now have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price in the near term. Short-term holders are defined as wallets that have acquired Bitcoin within the last 155 days and are typically responsive to break-even levels.

Currently, the breaking point is the short-term holder realized price, which is around $99,100. This figure represents the average cost for recent purchasers. Price behavior shifts around this zone: when Bitcoin trades below it, holder sentiment is negative, and when it approaches this level, they may look to exit their positions. If no compensating capital rotation occurs, this could lead to a sell-off.

The impact of this pressure is evident in the short-term holder NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). On December 18, it dropped to about −0.18, indicating significant losses. Since then, it has rebounded toward −0.05, implying that losses are decreasing.

As NUPL nears zero, the tendency to sell often increases—not due to a downturn in the market, but because traders aim to minimize their losses. This could explain why Bitcoin is hesitant around the $99,100 mark, despite other favorable macro indicators.

Key Price Levels for Bitcoin That Could Validate the Prediction

Analyzing Bitcoin’s price chart reveals key pressures and structures. The Bitcoin price is currently consolidating within a cup-and-handle pattern, which is a bullish continuation structure. This follows a rebound from resistance around $95,180. To confirm upward movement, Bitcoin must surpass two critical levels, assuming it first breaks above the neckline at $95,180.

The first level to watch is near $99,400, which aligns with the short-term holder realized price. A significant daily close above this range would indicate that selling pressure from break-even holders has been absorbed.

The second crucial hurdle is close to $101,600, corresponding with the 365-day moving average. This moving average reflects Bitcoin's long-term trend over the past year, and reclaiming it often signifies a transition from consolidation to growth.

If Bitcoin successfully reclaims both of these levels with daily closes, the price structure suggests a continued upward trend that aligns with Ehsani’s macro perspective. The initial target would then move to $108,000 based on chart extensions.

On the downside, the bullish setup remains intact as long as Bitcoin stays above $91,900, the lower boundary of the handle. However, a severe decline below $84,300, which forms the cup's base, would invalidate the bullish pattern and delay upward movement but would not nullify the overall positive outlook.

Overall, Bitcoin's long-term narrative remains supportive. In the short term, the crypto market is simply awaiting evidence beyond the immediate pressures from short-term holders. Overcoming these near-term challenges is the final hurdle before a broader capital rotation can fuel the next phase of growth.