VanEck: Bitcoin Miner Exit Could Indicate Market Bottom

VanEck: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation May Signal Bottom

VanEck highlights a potential turning point for Bitcoin as miners capitulate amid falling prices and rising operational costs. Research shows that this miner exit could indicate a market bottom, while corporate investors step in to make strategic purchases.

Key Takeaways

The Bitcoin network has seen a 4% drop in hash rate over the past 30 days, the largest since April 2024.
Increasing mining difficulty and declining Bitcoin prices are forcing miners to exit the market.
Historically, negative hash rate growth correlates with a 77% chance of Bitcoin price appreciation in the next six months.
Corporate entities are actively purchasing Bitcoin, having accumulated 42,000 BTC recently, which reflects a significant trend since mid-2025.
While long-term corporate treasuries are buying, Bitcoin ETF/ETP investors are reducing their holdings, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

The current state of Bitcoin seems bleak, characterized by declining prices and concerning on-chain metrics. However, VanEck presents a reason for cautious optimism: miners are capitulating, which may signal a potential market bottom.

The total computing power securing the Bitcoin network, known as the "hash rate," has fallen by 4% in the last 30 days, marking the largest decline since April 2024. A key factor contributing to this decline is the "breakeven price" for a typical mining rig, such as the S19 XP, which stands at $0.077 per kWh. With Bitcoin's price falling and mining difficulty rising, many miners are forced to shut down operations. Those who were previously forced to sell every Bitcoin they mined just to cover expenses are now going offline.

Notably, miners in Xinjiang, China, have decommissioned about 1.3 GW of mining capacity. Historical data indicates that when the 90-day hash rate growth turns negative, the likelihood of Bitcoin's price rising over the subsequent six months increases to 77%.

In the midst of this miner capitulation, corporations are taking action by "buying the dip." In the last month alone, they have added 42,000 Bitcoin to their portfolios, representing the highest accumulation rate since July 2025. This trend is confirmed by reports from U.Today and reflects a significant strategy by corporate investors.

Conversely, those invested in Bitcoin ETFs/ETPs appear to be retreating, with their holdings down approximately 120 basis points. Long-term corporate treasuries are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, while more transient ETP investors are selling off.

The current selling pressure seems to be stemming from cyclical players who entered the market in recent years, rather than from long-time Bitcoin enthusiasts, often referred to as "OGs." In addition, speculation in the market has diminished, with perpetual future basis rates falling to 5%, which is below the yearly average of 7.4%.

Overall, the landscape of Bitcoin investing is shifting, with miners exiting and corporate investors stepping up to the plate, potentially paving the way for a more stable market in the future.