VanEck Predicts 2026 Will be a Year of Risk-On Investment Despite Bitcoin Cycle Break

VanEck has announced that 2026 will be a “risk-on” year for investors, even though Bitcoin has deviated from its usual four-year cycle. CEO Jan van Eck has identified artificial intelligence, private credit, and gold as significant investment opportunities following corrections expected at the end of 2025.

Key Takeaways

VanEck predicts 2026 will be a “risk-on” year, despite uncertainties surrounding Bitcoin's cycle.
Artificial intelligence, private credit, and gold are highlighted as strong investment opportunities.
Fiscal health in the U.S. is improving, with expectations of robust GDP growth.
Gold is witnessing a resurgence, and pullbacks in price are viewed as buying opportunities.
The break in Bitcoin's cycle creates short-term uncertainty, impacting its traditional performance patterns.

With this strategic outlook, investors are encouraged to approach the year with caution yet remain poised to explore burgeoning opportunities in emerging sectors like AI and precious metals.

VanEck Says 2026 Will Be Risk-On Quarter Despite Bitcoin Cycle Break

The asset manager's outlook for the first quarter of 2026 highlights an unprecedented clarity regarding fiscal and monetary policy. This represents a stark contrast to recent years filled with economic uncertainty and differs from Goldman Sachs' projection of an 11% return on global stocks, which relies primarily on equities rather than alternative assets.

VanEck Bitcoin Risk-On Quarter - Goldman Sachs Projection Table

VanEck credits this newfound clarity to the influence of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Federal Reserve policy.

“Scott Bessent’s recent podcast interview is profound. I listened to it three times,” said van Eck, emphasizing Bessent’s assertion that current interest rates are at “normal levels” and do not necessitate aggressive cuts.

According to this framework, the Fed is expected to adopt a restrained monetary policy, with market projections suggesting only a 25 to 50 basis point adjustment in rates throughout 2026.

VanEck stressed that Bessent criticized excessive quantitative easing implemented during the COVID pandemic, which he believes led to the persistent 10% inflation troubling Americans.

Optimism Driven by Fiscal Stability and AI Potential

The fiscal outlook in the U.S. shows notable improvement, with deficits decreasing as a share of GDP from their COVID-era highs, which contributes to stabilizing long-term interest rates.

VanEck anticipates the 2026 fiscal deficit to be 5.5% of GDP or lower, countering more pessimistic forecasts from Wall Street.

Van Eck noted that GDP growth may significantly surpass consensus estimates, pointing out that Bessent argued analysts are “an order of magnitude wrong” with forecasts just above 2%, especially given the strong 4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“There’s concern over appointing a new Fed chair in May 2026, with fears Donald Trump might influence the Fed too heavily,” van Eck explained in his quarterly video. However, he believes that Bessent’s groundwork facilitates a smooth confirmation.

Following corrections in late 2025, AI valuations have become more appealing, according to VanEck’s analysis.

“I hope to demonstrate that the bubble has burst, and it’s time to reassess your AI investments,” van Eck shared in his presentation, mentioning that companies relying on debt for developing data centers saw stock prices plummet by more than 50% from their summer highs.

One such example is Oracle, a technology firm that announced significant computing agreements yet saw its stock decline from levels termed “nosebleed,” despite strong demand for both tokens and computing resources.

Companies in the nuclear energy sector, related to AI-driven electricity demand, have also seen meaningful repricing, improving the risk-reward ratio for mid-term investors.

VanEck Bitcoin Risk-On Quarter - MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index

Attractive Opportunities in Private Credit and Gold

After a challenging year in 2025, business development companies are currently offering appealing value, with yields reaching 9% amidst concerns regarding floating-rate debt exposure and isolated fraud incidents in private markets.

Van Eck pointed out that management firms like Ares Capital have seen their valuations decrease from 50 times forward earnings to about 35 times, returning them to historical norms.

“A notable Wall Street CEO mentioned a 'cockroach' in the private credit markets. While I consider those concerns to be exaggerated, they are well-priced and present an opportunity,” van Eck remarked, acknowledging previous cautions but now seeing attractive entry points.

Gold is experiencing a structural resurgence as a global monetary asset, driven by rising central bank demand and a decreasing reliance on the dollar.

Gold Market Growth

VanEck noted recent events in Venezuela as a reinforcement of geopolitical uncertainty, which bolsters demand for precious metals, as international governments recognize the U.S.’s propensity to seize assets or engage in military interventions.

While short-term outlooks for gold may seem technically extended, van Eck views price drops as buying opportunities within a prolonged trend that he expects to continue through 2028 and beyond, labeling it a “paradigm change” similar to the transition off the gold standard in 1971.

Bitcoin's Cycle Break Creates Short-Term Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle experienced a break in 2025, leading to uncertainty surrounding the typically strong performance in the first half of post-halving years.

Van Eck highlighted caution over the next three to six months, stating that Bitcoin was the worst-performing asset in 2025 and that it did not follow its usual pattern of achieving a peak after three years.

“The break in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle complicates short-term predictions,” the outlook stated, while VanEck team members Matthew Sigel and David Schassler maintain more optimistic views for the immediate term.

This cautious perspective aligns with a warning from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who noted that capital inflows into Bitcoin have “completely dried up,” suggesting a shift toward equities and precious metals may result in sideways trading until Q1 2026.