Venezuela, Geopolitical Risks, and Bitcoin: Insights from On-Chain Data

In recent days, Bitcoin has managed to rise back above the $92,000 mark after being stuck below $90,000 for several days. This rise comes as a small relief for a market that has faced pressure since late 2025. While this rebound has helped improve short-term sentiment, confidence among investors remains shaky. Analysts have warned that 2026 might lead to a broader bear market, citing sluggish spot demand, waning momentum, and ongoing selling by larger market players.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has rebounded above $92,000 after a period below $90,000, providing short-term relief.
Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Venezuela, have re-emerged but have not caused panic among investors, as indicated by on-chain data.
Exchange Netflow data suggests that sellers are not rushing to offload their coins, showing a market that is cautious but stable.
Bitcoin's current price action indicates a consolidation phase, with important resistance levels to watch for any potential trend changes.

Amidst this backdrop, geopolitical issues have resurfaced in the market's discussions. An analysis from XWIN Research Japan highlights concerns over a potential US military intervention in Venezuela, which has reignited worries about geopolitical risks across global markets. Such events usually lead to increased volatility and prompt investors to adopt more defensive strategies.

However, simply looking at price changes does not fully capture Bitcoin's response, particularly in a market influenced by derivatives and algorithmic trading. On-chain data provides a more detailed perspective. Exchange Netflow data becomes especially important during periods of geopolitical tension, as it indicates whether holders are preparing to sell or remain inactive. When fear prevails, inflows to exchanges typically rise, suggesting participants are moving their coins onto platforms. In contrast, lower inflows or continued outflows indicate that investors are not eager to lessen their market exposure, even amidst unsettling news.

Exchange Netflows Indicate Caution Rather Than Panic

Current geopolitical events are being analyzed within a broader historical context. In previous military conflicts, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recent tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has frequently seen sharp but temporary price volatility. However, on-chain data reveals a calmer narrative. Exchange Netflow—tracking whether coins are deposited to sell or withdrawn to hold—rarely deteriorated significantly during these events. Since 2023, the market has shown an increased capacity to absorb localized geopolitical shocks without triggering widespread sell-offs.

Bitcoin Exchange Netflow | Source: CryptoQuant

The situation concerning Venezuela aligns with this pattern. Despite the uncertainty and short-term price sensitivity caused by the headlines, there hasn't been a significant influx of Bitcoin moving to exchanges. The lack of high inflows indicates that investors are not reacting in panic; rather, the market appears to be keeping a close watch on the developments while maintaining their existing positions.

In the past, Bitcoin’s more noticeable reactions on-chain have been linked to structural economic threats rather than singular military actions. Factors like US-China trade tensions, abrupt regulatory changes, or capital controls usually affect global liquidity and investor freedom more directly, leaving clearer marks on exchange flows. So far, the Venezuela situation has not reached that level of concern. Exchange Netflow figures suggest that the market is vigilant but not retreating.

Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance after Recent Rally

Recently, Bitcoin has made a significant rebound, surpassing the $92,000 mark after previously struggling below $90,000. This movement is characterized as a relief rally that follows a sharp decline from the $105,000–$110,000 range earlier in the fourth quarter. However, the broader indicator still suggests a market in consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

BTC consolidates above critical price level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Currently, prices are trading below the declining short-term moving average (blue line), which has been acting as dynamic resistance since the sell-off in November. Although Bitcoin has reclaimed ground above the 200-day moving average (red line), this level remains flat, indicating stabilization rather than a resurgence of bullish trends. The medium-term moving average (green line), positioned around the $100,000 mark, remains a crucial obstacle that the bulls have yet to overcome meaningfully.

The recent bounce has occurred with moderate trading volume, lacking the surge generally associated with strong trend continuation. This suggests that the rally is driven by short covering and tactical buying instead of widespread market demand returning.

From a structural standpoint, Bitcoin appears to be forming a trading range between approximately $88,000 and $96,000. Maintaining above the lower boundary would preserve the consolidation phase, while falling below $88,000 could signal a renewed downturn towards the mid-$80,000s.

For now, the market's price action represents relief and stabilization, but to confirm a sustainable uptrend, Bitcoin must decisively reclaim higher resistance levels.