Veteran Analyst Spots Promising Bitcoin Bullish Divergence Against Gold: Are We Due for a Reversal?

Summary: A seasoned market analyst has identified a significant bullish divergence for Bitcoin against gold, suggesting a potential reversal in its current bearish trend. Despite Bitcoin's downturn, this analysis may indicate a shift towards more positive price movements ahead.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has been experiencing a bearish trend in 2025, with its value currently at $88,896, reflecting a 4.8% decline year-to-date.
Gold has outperformed Bitcoin, reaching all-time highs during this period.
A "strong" bullish divergence has formed in the BTC/GOLD pair, suggesting weakening selling pressure and a potential bullish reversal for Bitcoin.
The RSI has dropped to historically low levels that coincide with previous market bottoms, indicating a possible upcoming reversal.
Bitcoin has recently shown some recovery against gold, rising from 19 to 20 ounces.

Image Owned By The Crypto Basic. Logo Displayed In The Image Are Owned By Respective Crypto Project

Bitcoin's Struggles Against Gold

Despite a promising start to 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is forecasted to finish the year on a bearish note, marking its first negative annual candlestick since the 2022 bear market. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $88,896, representing a 4.8% decline year-to-date. In contrast, gold (XAU) has shown robust performance as Bitcoin’s value continues to fall.

Gold gained an advantage in early October, coinciding with Bitcoin's decline. Since that time, Bitcoin has plummeted, while gold has surged to new all-time highs, leading to a significant drop in the BTC/GOLD pairing.

Signs of Bullish Divergence in Bitcoin

Since October 5, the BTC/GOLD pair has dropped from 32 to 20, indicating a decline of over 37.5% in just a short time. However, renowned analyst Michaël van de Poppe points out a potential positive development: a “strong” bullish divergence on the daily chart of the BTC/GOLD pair.

For newcomers, a bullish divergence occurs when prices make lower lows, but a momentum indicator such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows higher lows. This typically happens during a downtrend and can signal that selling pressure may be easing, paving the way for a possible bullish reversal.

The bullish divergence for the BTC/GOLD pair started to emerge in late November. On November 21, the pair hit a low of 20, correlating with an RSI drop to 21.30. Although there was a lower low just below 20 on December 1, the RSI recorded a higher low of 26.83 on the same day.

BTCGOLD 1D Chart

Additionally, another lower low of 19 was observed on December 26, but the RSI registered a higher low of 32.21. If the right conditions align, this pattern may indicate a forthcoming bullish reversal for Bitcoin, which has been lagging behind gold this quarter.

Weekly RSI Indicates Key Support Level

Michaël van de Poppe also noted that the weekly RSI for the BTC/GOLD pair has recently dropped to levels not seen since Bitcoin market bottoms. Current data shows the RSI has reached 31.85, the lowest level since November 2022, which marked Bitcoin’s bottom following the FTX collapse.

BTCGOLD 1W Chart

According to van de Poppe, similar RSI levels historically marked Bitcoin's bottoms during the bear markets of 2015 and 2018. The combination of a daily bullish divergence and low weekly RSI levels strengthens the argument for a potential reversal for Bitcoin, although this outcome is not guaranteed.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has recently gained some traction against gold, rising from a low of 19 ounces to the current value of 20 ounces. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone recently stated that, although Bitcoin has lost its volatility premium over silver, it continues to uphold a significant historical support level.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Crypto Basic. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment choices. The Crypto Basic assumes no responsibility for any financial losses incurred.