What to Anticipate for Bitcoin Prices in December 2025

As December approaches, the Bitcoin market is under a cloud of uncertainty following a challenging November, where its price plummeted over 17%. This analysis evaluates critical factors influencing Bitcoin's trajectory this month, including historical performance, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and on-chain data.

Key Takeaways

Historically, December has been lackluster for Bitcoin, with average returns of just 8.42% and median returns at 1.69%.
Recent data shows caution in ETF flows, with November seeing significant outflows of $3.48 billion.
On-chain metrics reveal that whale activity suggests more selling pressure than accumulation.
Bitcoin currently trades at a critical level, where movements could indicate significant changes for the month ahead.
The market is viewing December with a cautious lens until ETF demand rebounds.

December Bitcoin Performance: Risks and Observations

The focus is on Bitcoin prices this December, particularly as the market closed November poorly. Bitcoin's price drop has sparked discussions about whether the recent uptick to $80,000 was indeed the bottom.

Historically, December has not been a strong month for Bitcoin. Although the long-term average return sits at 8.42%, the median return is significantly lower at 1.69%. Over the last four years, December has presented mixed outcomes, with three negative months recorded.

The results from November have increased caution; instead of following a positive seasonal trend, Bitcoin concluded the month over 17% down.

BTC Price History: CryptoRank

Are you interested in further insights about tokens? Subscribe to Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter!

Examining ETF Flows for December Outlook

The caution seen in Bitcoin's performance is mirrored by ETF flows. In November, the net outflow reached $3.48 billion across U.S. spot ETFs. The last significant inflow period occurred between April and July; since then, the flows have been volatile, indicating a defensive stance among institutions.

MEXC Chief Analyst Shawn Young commented on the importance of consistent ETF demand for Bitcoin's recovery: "For Bitcoin to embark on a significant upward trend, we need to see renewed interest from investors, improved liquidity, and deeper market engagement. If Bitcoin spot ETFs see inflows ranging from $200 to $300 million for several consecutive days, it could mean institutional investors are once again favoring BTC," Young stated.

Hunter Rogers, Co-Founder of TeraHash, suggested the setup for December appears low-risk, stating: "I do not anticipate extreme volatility this month; rather, a slow upward trend seems more realistic. If ETF flows stabilize and volatility decreases, Bitcoin might surprise us positively, but overall, it seems to be a phase of recovery," he mentioned.

These analyses highlight a cautious December unless ETF demand experiences a significant upswing.

On-Chain Metrics Indicate Weak Support

Evaluating Bitcoin’s on-chain data reveals a disconnect with what would typically signify a December bottom. Two critical metrics support this narrative: whales are still transferring coins to exchanges, and long-term holders are in distribution mode.

The Exchange Whale Ratio — which indicates how much of total inflows come from the top 10 substantial wallets — increased from 0.32 to 0.68 on November 27. Although it has since eased to 0.53, it remains at a concerning level that suggests whales are preparing to sell rather than accumulate.

Whales Keep Moving BTC To Exchanges: CryptoQuant

Additionally, the Hodler Net Position Change, which indicates long-term investor behavior, remains negative. These investors have reduced their holdings for over six months; the last strong rally for BTC began only after this metric turned positive in late September.

Shawn believes a true market shift must occur when long-term sellers halt their exchanges: "A real rally could materialize once long-term holders stop selling, whale accumulation turns positive again, and market depth improves," he emphasized.

Hunter Rogers echoed this sentiment, linking trend reversals to healthier supply behavior from miners and long-term holders: "When long-term holders start accumulating again, it signals a decrease in selling pressure," he explained.

Currently, both whale activity and long-term holders remain in a selling pattern, suggesting Bitcoin might experience further declines before any substantial recovery.

The market finds Bitcoin at a critical juncture where even minor movements could set the tone for December. The prevailing trend remains bearish, with current chart structures supporting this outlook.

Bitcoin recently fell below the lower boundary of a bear flag formed over several weeks. This breakdown hints at a potential drop to $66,800, although the market may find stability if liquidity holds.

Looking ahead, the first key level to monitor is $80,400, a previous support zone that, if breached, could signal further declines, aligning with Shawn Young’s perspective of a possible liquidity sweep before any recovery.

He provided a hopeful perspective, stating: "Bitcoin's current market setup hints at a liquidity sweep rather than a significant downward spiral."

On the upside, for Bitcoin to alter its trajectory, it must reclaim the $97,100 mark, the midpoint of the established pattern. A daily close above this level would reverse the bearish outlook and initiate a move towards resistance near $101,600.

Hunter also emphasized that any upward movement must be accompanied by increased volume: "A breakout only matters if it captures higher volume alongside it. If Bitcoin can sustain above the breakout zone with improved volume, we can consider that area as a reliable support level."

For December, the breakout zone lies between $93,900 and $97,100, where the chart, ETF activity, and on-chain data must shift from a cautious to a supportive stance.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

Until we see these confirmations, the bearish sentiment persists more than bullish opportunities. Bitcoin could face deeper retests if ETF outflows intensify or if whale activity continues to favor selling.

As December unfolds, Bitcoin currently occupies a precarious position between two critical markers — $80,400 as the crucial support level and $97,137 as the upper limit that could rejuvenate market momentum.