When Might Bitcoin Hit Bottom? Analyst Predicts October 2026

An analyst has provided insights on when Bitcoin could potentially hit a bottom, drawing from the historical price patterns observed during previous cycles.

Key Takeaways

Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin typically takes 364 days to go from major price tops to bottoms.
Based on past cycles, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin might reach its next bottom around October 2026.
A potential price drop of around 70% from the peak could target a price level of approximately $37,500.
In the short term, Bitcoin has been trading within a Parallel Channel, indicating current price consolidation without a clear trend direction.

Bitcoin

Analyzing Bitcoin's Cycles

Analyst Ali Martinez recently examined Bitcoin's historical price patterns in a thread on X. He pointed out that “Bitcoin $BTC major cycles have followed a surprisingly consistent rhythm, both in timing and depth.” The following chart illustrates some notable similarities in the last few Bitcoin cycles.

Bitcoin Cycles
The cycles followed by the quarterly price of BTC | Source: @alicharts on X

From the chart, it’s clear that Bitcoin has taken approximately 1,064 days to ascend from the bottom of prior bear markets to reach peaks in the last three cycles, assuming the current cycle's peak above $126,000 marks the highest point.

The average time it took to drop from the peak to the subsequent bottom was similar for the 2017 and 2021 cycles, approximately 364 days. Martinez suggested, “If this pattern holds, Bitcoin $BTC is now inside that 364-day correction window, which points to a potential bottom around October 2026.”

The chart further showcases a potential target for Bitcoin at the bottom, based on historical cycle patterns. The bear market of 2018 saw a drop of 84.22% from its bull market peak, while in 2022, Bitcoin decreased by 77.57%. For the current cycle, Martinez anticipates a drawdown of around 70%, pinpointing a price target near $37,500. It remains uncertain whether this cycle will mirror previous trends or diverge in a different direction.

Short-Term Price Dynamics

While the chart illustrates Bitcoin's long-term price trends, what about the short-term potential? In another post on X, the analyst shared insights on Bitcoin's 4-hour price chart, highlighting a technical analysis (TA) pattern that has developed recently.

Bitcoin Parallel Channel
The pattern observed in the 4-hour price of BTC | Source: @alicharts on X

As shown in the chart, Bitcoin appears to have been trading within a Parallel Channel on the 4-hour timeframe over the past few weeks. A Parallel Channel forms when an asset consolidates between two parallel trendlines, with the lower trendline functioning as support and the upper trendline acting as resistance.

Recently, the cryptocurrency tested the lower border of this Parallel Channel, resulting in a rebound as support levels held. Currently, Bitcoin has returned to the middle zone of the pattern, indicating there is no strong bias in either direction at the moment.

Current BTC Price

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $87,300, reflecting a 0.7% increase over the past week.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView