Why XRP Price Is Lagging Behind Despite the Successful ETF Launch: Analyst Insight

In the early months of 2025, XRP showed promising potential, but recently, it has struggled to maintain strong bullish momentum. This downturn is particularly evident as XRP plunged since reaching an all-time peak of $3.65 in July 2025. Although the introduction of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States was anticipated to boost demand and support the asset's price, recent analyses indicate that these ETFs have not alleviated the bearish pressure on XRP.

Key Takeaways:

XRP has struggled to maintain upward momentum in 2025, currently down nearly 50% from its all-time high.
The launch of spot XRP ETFs has not reduced bearish pressure, with whale inflows contributing to the price decline.
Analyst insights suggest that the XRP price could fall to as low as $1.50 if whale activity continues.
Historical support zones exist, but selling pressure remains significant whenever XRP approaches the $1.95 level.

XRP Price

Potential Decline to $1.5 if Whale Activity Persists

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analyst PelinayPA, who remains anonymous, highlighted that a specific group of XRP whales has significantly influenced the continued price decline. The analyst provided an examination of ETF-related activities of these whales over the recent weeks.

PelinayPA referenced the Exchange Inflow – Value Bands chart, which monitors the volume of XRP flowing into centralized exchanges categorized by different investor groups over time. Recent findings reveal that a substantial portion of these inflows originates from the 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP categories.

PelinayPA noted:

“After each major inflow spike on the chart, the price establishes a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, demonstrating that supply exceeds demand. This situation arises because there are no strong new buyers in the market. Even though whales are not aggressively selling, the relentless increase in supply continues to drive down the price.”

XRP Price
Source: CryptoQuant

Analyzing the inflow intensity and price response, the crypto analyst concluded that the primary support zone lies around $1.82 to $1.87. This area has historically shown significant buying activity, providing stability in previous periods. However, if whale inflows persist, the XRP price may drop to between $1.50 and $1.60, as large transfers to centralized exchanges often signal increased selling pressure.

Whales Offloaded Their Holdings After Spot ETFs Launched

Following the pattern seen with earlier Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it was anticipated that the introduction of XRP ETFs would generate institutional demand and lead to rising prices for the asset. Contrarily, XRP’s price has plummeted nearly 50% from its peak.

Market insights indicate that US-based spot XRP ETFs have not experienced a single day of negative outflows since their launch in mid-November, with a total net asset value exceeding $1.14 billion, according to SoSoValue.

Interestingly, PelinayPA suggested that the decline in XRP's price could be attributed to whales offloading their holdings on exchanges as expectations surrounding the ETFs grew. This activity provided sell-side liquidity for retail investors eager to purchase in response to the ETF news.

PelinayPA explained that this phenomenon accounts for the recurring selling pressure on XRP whenever it nears the $1.95 mark. The analyst indicated that a bullish run for XRP would require a decrease in exchange inflows.

Currently, XRP is priced at around $1.90, reflecting a more than 3% increase over the last 24 hours.

XRP Price
Daily timeframe chart for XRP | Source: XRPUSDT chart on TradingView