Will 2026 Bring a Severe Crypto Bear Market? Industry Experts Weigh In

As 2026 unfolds, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the performance of the crypto market this year. This uncertainty comes after 2025 ended in a way that was quite unexpected for many.

Key Takeaways

The crypto market faces uncertainty for 2026 after a disappointing performance in 2025.
Analysts question the relevance of Bitcoin's four-year cycle as market dynamics shift.
A combination of external factors, such as geopolitical instability and potential economic shocks, could lead to a severe bear market.
Conversely, institutional capital influx and regulatory clarity could pave the way for a renewed bull market.
Monitoring market structure and key price levels will be essential in the coming year.

With opinions divided among analysts, a central question remains: Could 2026 usher in one of the most drastic bear markets for cryptocurrencies? BeInCrypto interviewed several experts in the field to discuss what lies ahead.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Is It Still Relevant for 2026?

Previously, BeInCrypto highlighted the optimistic outlook for the crypto markets in 2025, buoyed by a pro-crypto U.S. president along with favorable macroeconomic conditions like Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased liquidity.

Contrary to these expectations, 2025 concluded on a disappointing note. Bitcoin wrapped up 2025 with a 5.7% loss, while a sharp decline in the final quarter resulted in a staggering drop of 23.7%, marking its worst Q4 performance since 2018.

This disappointing outcome has prompted many experts to reevaluate their predictions about the market's future direction. During uncertain times, investors often look to historical patterns for insight.

One of the most referenced frameworks for predicting Bitcoin’s future movements has been its four-year cycle. In this cycle, 2026 would typically indicate the onset of a bear market.

So, do we necessarily face more declines? Not exactly. A growing cohort of experts claims that this pattern might no longer be valid.

Nic Puckrin, an analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, indicated that the four-year cycle may not be the optimal way to analyze Bitcoin anymore. He pointed out that market dynamics have changed dramatically following the approval of ETFs and the increasing influx of institutional capital.

“Although 2025 ended up being disappointing in performance, it has been a significant year for institutional acceptance and adoption. Moving forward, the factors driving the market will likely be macroeconomic or geopolitical, rather than time-based. Bitcoin is increasingly mirroring other financial assets, rather than just responding to its halving events,” Puckrin stated.

Jamie Elkaleh, CMO of Bitget Wallet, remarked that traditional macroeconomic cycles have become more dependable indicators. He noted, “Bitcoin’s responsiveness to global liquidity, M2 expansion, and Federal Reserve policies now outweighs the mechanical effects of halvings. Essentially, we’re witnessing a ‘de-halving’ of crypto, where institutional ETF flows create a steadier demand, mitigating supply-shock volatility.”

Likewise, Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner at DWF Labs, underlined that while halving events still matter, they can no longer solely explain market behavior.

He emphasized that as crypto gains more institutional support, it increasingly resembles a global asset class rather than a self-contained market, making simple cycle-based models less viable.

Why 2026 Might Disregard Traditional Bull–Bear Frameworks

If the four-year cycle isn't the determining factor, some analysts refer to longer-term historical frameworks like the Benner Cycle. According to this model, 2026 is designated as a “Year of Good Times, High Prices, and an optimal time to sell Stocks and other assets.”

If this pattern holds true, it would suggest a predominantly bullish atmosphere. However, does that guarantee a new bull market? Experts warn that this is no longer a straightforward assumption.

Elkaleh shared with BeInCrypto that the market's failure to meet bullish expectations in 2025 signals a clear shift from speculative excess to a macro-driven asset class.

“Instead of anticipating a clear bull or bear scenario, 2026 appears more as a phase of structural consolidation. The excess leverage has been cleared, but the foundational elements like ETFs, corporate treasuries, and clearer policies like the GENIUS Act suggest that any downturn will likely establish a higher floor than past cycles. As rate cuts stabilize capital costs, this consolidation could lead us into a more disciplined bull phase later in 2026, rather than a speculative surge,” he explained.

Grachev echoed this sentiment, suggesting that 2026 may not fit neatly into conventional market categorizations.

“I doubt that 2026 will align with a traditional bull or bear narrative. We may see divergence. Bitcoin will still lead the markets, but I’m not sure that other crypto assets will follow as closely as they have in previous cycles,” he noted.

He emphasized that while altcoins may continue to exhibit volatility, the range of potential outcomes could be much wider than in the past. Collectively, these developments imply a more disciplined market structure sensitive to demand.

Grachev asserted that the market's “painful reset” following the crash on October 10 has left it healthier. Moving forward, markets will likely be less fragile and more responsive to demand.

Ultimately, Puckrin framed the last few months as a phase of repricing, characterized by long-term “OG” holders selling off while institutions are buying the excess.

“I still expect the market to rebalance in the coming months, positioning us for a new all-time high next year. Though, we can likely expect more volatility and discomfort along the way,” he remarked.

Potential Risks: What Could Trigger a Bear Market in 2026?

While the broader sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, the market is known for defying predictions. BeInCrypto consulted experts to identify factors that could potentially trigger or exacerbate an extreme crypto bear market in 2026.

Puckrin indicated that an extreme bear market scenario would likely involve a convergence of factors, such as tightening global liquidity, a prolonged risk-off sentiment, and a structural shock.

For Bitcoin, a shock could occur if digital asset treasuries start selling into a weak market that cannot absorb that level of supply.

“The collapse of the AI bubble could trigger a pullback in crypto. Nevertheless, if demand returns and liquidity flows back, this bear scenario may become less likely in 2026,” he projected.

Elkaleh pointed out that any extreme crypto bear market in 2026 would likely stem from external shocks rather than fundamental weaknesses within the crypto sector.

“Critical risks include the collapse of the AI bubble causing a significant sell-off in U.S. equities, renewed Federal Reserve tightening if inflation remains stubborn, or a systemic trust failure such as a major exchange collapsing or an over-leveraged corporate treasury. If institutional inflows stall amid geopolitical unrest, a lack of new buyers could trigger capital flight, pushing prices toward historically realized levels around $55,000 to $60,000,” he elaborated.

Konstantins Vasilenko, co-founder of Paybis, suggested that an extreme bear market in 2026 could extend current conditions, characterized by an institution-driven market with minimal retail involvement.

“If institutional flows slow down without retail engagement, downward pressure may persist without a clear path to recovery,” Vasilenko warned.

Maksym Sakharov, co-founder, and CEO of WeFi, cautioned that future market stress could stem from leverage.

“Any new ‘safe yield’ product or algorithmic stablecoin might work until it fails. Alternatively, another exchange might engage in fractional reserve practices behind closed doors. The trigger for market downturns is often hidden leverage,” he shared.

Anticipating a Positive Outcome: Factors that Could Create a Bull Market

Conversely, experts also highlighted elements that might render the bear case irrelevant and support a renewed bull market. Grachev indicated that two factors could lessen the bearish outlook: a more stable leverage profile and a surge of capital with long-term investment goals.

He explained that decreased excess risk compared to prior cycles has resulted in more disciplined market conduct. Additionally, pragmatic regulatory approaches are facilitating increased institutional participation.

“If institutions recommence deploying capital post-year-end (a common occurrence) and if regulatory clarity continues to advance, the crypto market will benefit from conditions that foster a healthier market environment,” Grachev asserted.

Elkaleh noted that the bear case would significantly weaken if signs of sovereign adoption or large-scale asset tokenization emerge. He suggested that if a G20 nation were to incorporate Bitcoin into its strategic reserves or if U.S. regulators allow broader capital-market tokenization, Bitcoin's scarcity narrative could shift from one that is speculative to one that is essential.

“Simultaneously, widespread adoption of real-world assets, on-chain stablecoin payments, and favorable U.S. policy developments could solidify demand rooted in practical utility. Coupled with a potential liquidity supercycle driven by fiscal stimulus or a weaker dollar, these factors could overpower cyclical pressures and support a renewed bull phase, with a possible upside toward the $150,000+ range,” the CMO of Bitget Wallet affirmed.

Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, took a longer-term view, noting that resilience in the crypto industry is founded when structural demand begins to surpass cyclical sentiment. He identified three main factors:

Early Signs of a Crypto Bear Market: What to Watch For

Whether 2026 turns out to be a bull market, a bear market, or something in between, keeping an eye on early indicators that could hint at future movements will be crucial.

For Puckrin, the emphasis is less on short-term price analytics and more on market structure. He mentioned that sustained breakdowns below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, along with continual failures to maintain key resistance levels, would serve as major “red flags.”

“Around $82,000 is viewed as a true market average — the typical cost basis of active investors — making it a vital price point to monitor. Similarly, $74,400 represents Strategy’s cost basis, establishing another critical threshold. A decline below these prices wouldn’t automatically indicate the onset of an extreme bear market, but it would inspire caution,” he told BeInCrypto.

Elkaleh added that before price actions unequivocally signal a profound bear market, various on-chain indicators usually surface first. A sustained decrease in wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC would suggest that more sophisticated investors are reducing their exposure.

He explained that if on-chain buying demand diminishes while prices stay stable, it often implies that market support comes from leverage rather than genuine organic interest. Additionally, continued growth in stablecoin supply could hint at rising pressure as capital shifts into more defensive positions without leaving the crypto sector.

On the other hand, Sakharov argued that the opposite trend would be more alarming. He remarked, “Ignore price fluctuations and focus on where the capital flows. If the stablecoin market cap shrinks, that’s a solid indication that capital is exiting the ecosystem entirely. This differs from a downturn where money just circulates or remains on the sidelines. I’d also keep tabs on the actual usage of stablecoin rails; if infrastructure remains active, the downturn may be just narrative cleanup.”

Meanwhile, Grachev believes that the earliest indicators often come from derivatives and liquidity dynamics, as changes in risk appetite become visible there.

Consistently negative funding rates, decreasing open interest, and thinning order books would suggest a more cautious stance, as participants pull back on exposure and capital becomes increasingly careful.

“When it becomes challenging to execute sizable trades without affecting market behavior, it signals that liquidity is retreating and risk tolerance is contracting. Additionally, stress can quickly appear in incentive-driven projects. If activity sharply declines when incentives fade, it indicates that demand was mostly reactive rather than sustainable. As the market evolves, these structural indicators gain importance over temporary price shifts. Price movements can be manipulated in the short term, but liquidity, depth, and capital behaviors are much tougher to control,” the executive communicated.

As 2026 advances, the crypto market is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic contexts, institutional behaviors, and liquidity dynamics, as opposed to fixed historical cycles. While the possibility of further declines persists, experts believe the market is entering a phase of structural consolidation and divergence, where structural signals and capital flows become more significant than simple classifications of bull or bear markets.