Will a Drop to $70K Signal a Bear Market for Bitcoin?

As we move into the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has seen a significant decline, falling 30% below the $90k mark. While this pullback is typical during bull markets, it has breached a crucial support level, prompting some well-known analysts to adopt a more bearish outlook for the mid-term.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's recent drop below $90k has raised concerns about potential bear market conditions.
Analyst Jackis believes a fall to $70k might not represent a typical bear market but rather a necessary adjustment within a larger macro context.
Significant technical indicators, including the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), are crucial for assessing market trends.
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin is nearing levels associated with prior bear market capitulations.
Current market conditions are tense, and further declines could mirror past bearish periods.

Bitcoin

This situation raises an important question: at which price point will we confirm that the bear market has begun, and are we currently experiencing one?

Bitcoin's Struggles Below Key Support

Currently, Bitcoin's price action cannot merely be categorized as a monthly range. Historically, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), shown as a blue line, has acted as the primary support level for bull markets.

Staying below the 50W EMA for an extended period has previously indicated bear market conditions. The recent dip below $100k in mid-November has pushed the price below this vital support, which might jeopardize the prevailing bullish trend unless this level is reclaimed.

Bitcoin Price Chart Source: BTC/USD, TradingView

If Bitcoin drops to between $60k and $70k, it could signal a potential bottom or reversal from bear market conditions based on the 50W EMA. Historically, this range served as a breakout level that helped Bitcoin mitigate deeper corrections. Even Chris Burniske, a former leader at Ark Invest, supports this viewpoint.

Bitcoin's Losses in Bear Market Scenarios

Analyzing on-chain data indicates that current market conditions are close to those experienced during full bear market capitulation. The aSOPR metric—tracking whether coins are sold at a profit or a loss—was nearing a point of slipping below 1, which has historically indicated bear market capitulation and subsequent market reversals.

Bitcoin On-Chain Data Source: Glassnode

The Total Supply in Loss metric also mirrors this outlook, revealing approximately 7 million BTC currently at a loss—the highest during this market cycle. This figure approaches the 8-10 million BTC supply loss levels that characterized previous bearish phases, according to Glassnode.

"This pattern resembles early transitional phases from past cycles, where growing investor frustration preceded a more pronounced shift toward bearish conditions and intensified losses at lower prices."

Bitcoin Loss Chart Source: Glassnode

Overall, with Bitcoin currently around $88k and facing a 30% decrease, the market is under significant strain. A further decline to between $60k and $70k could result in losses reminiscent of past bearish trends.

Final Thoughts

In today's turbulent cryptocurrency landscape, understanding these market dynamics is essential for both seasoned investors and newcomers. Watching key indicators and price levels can provide insights into potential future movements for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.