Will Bitcoin Price Reach $100,000 in January? Key Charts Provide Insight

As we begin 2026, Bitcoin is sitting near $88,000, having experienced weeks of sideways movement. While its price seems stagnant, underlying data suggests significant shifts may be underway in the market.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price struggles to overcome resistance but shows promise from long-term investors.
Long-term holder (LTH) supply data has shifted positively, indicating accumulation rather than distribution.
The long-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) suggests stability and cautious optimism among investors.
There's a trend of Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, reducing immediate selling pressure.
A move to $100,000 in January is uncertain without new catalysts, as market conditions remain challenging.

Recent indicators from CryptoQuant are showing signs of relaxed sell pressure, even amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties that are limiting upward price movement.

Signs of Accumulation from Long-Term Holders

Bitcoin has faced challenges in regaining significant resistance following a steep decline in late 2025. The persistent absence of buying support keeps market sentiment fragile, with many traders looking for indications that the downturn has concluded.

One important indicator is the long-term holder (LTH) supply data. After several months of negative trends, the 30-day net change in LTH supply has increased positively by approximately 10,700 BTC.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder's Supply. Source: X/Darkfost

This change suggests that long-term investors are no longer offloading their coins significantly, with supply beginning to flow back into the hands of more committed holders—a pattern typically seen during consolidation rather than at market peaks.

LTH SOPR Indicates Stability Over Panic Selling

The second metric to consider is the long-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which measures whether long-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss. Currently, the LTH SOPR hovers around the neutral mark of 1.0, indicating that long-term holders are neither panicking nor quick to sell their holdings at a loss.

Historically, this behavior tends to emerge when markets are stabilizing following a correction rather than signaling a deeper downturn.

🚨 Movement of Older Coins

The Long-Term Holder SOPR has just reached 101.7 📈
→ Indicates strong profit-taking by long-term holders.

🔁 9 BTC have been transferred
⏳ Last active: June 2014

This suggests early holders are gradually distributing their assets. 👀 pic.twitter.com/wswH9FlSSy
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun)

Declining Exchange Outflows Mitigate Immediate Sell Pressure

The final indicator examines Bitcoin net flows out of exchanges. Recent statistics reveal ongoing net outflows, with more BTC exiting exchanges compared to those entering.

This trend diminishes the immediate sell-side supply available on spot markets. However, the absence of a price increase implies that demand still remains cautious, likely influenced by tighter liquidity and postponed expectations for a reduction in U.S. interest rates. Bitcoin Exchange Netflow. Source: X/CryptoQuant

Will Bitcoin Price Bounce Back in January?

When considering all these factors, the charts present a mixed but gradually improving scenario. Supply-side pressures seem to be easing, and long-term holders appear to be confident.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's price remains relatively stable due to lackluster demand and broader economic challenges. For Bitcoin to quickly ascend to $100,000 in January, a new catalyst may be required. Absent that, Bitcoin might continue its consolidation phase, creating a foundation for a more robust recovery later in 2026 rather than an immediate surge.