Will Bitcoin Reach $180,000 This Year? Insights from Amber Data

Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off the week with a strong bounce, bringing the leading cryptocurrency close to the $74,000 threshold by Wednesday, marking the first time it reached that level in over a month. However, as the week progressed, that upward momentum diminished, leading Bitcoin to settle back around $68,260.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin started the week strong but settled around $68,260 by week's end.
Amber Data sees potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs this year.
A key scenario predicts Bitcoin could trade between $90,000 and $120,000, while more optimistic conditions could push it to $180,000.
Current market structure is healthier after recent liquidations, but liquidity remains a concern.
A bearish scenario could see Bitcoin fall between $60,000 and $80,000 if economic conditions worsen.

(Images included in the article are not altered.)

Bitcoin

Despite these fluctuations, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data suggests that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. Their latest market report indicates that new all-time highs could still be within reach this year.

Understanding the Post-Liquidation Reset

Amber Data explains that Bitcoin has entered 2026 in a unique market position. They note that the market has undergone a "de-risking" process following a liquidation event in October, which effectively removed excessive leverage from trading positions.

The report highlights that the open interest in Bitcoin trading had risen to "unsustainable levels," making the market vulnerable to corrections. When news regarding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies emerged, the market’s overleveraged structure failed to cope with the selling pressure, resulting in a chain reaction of liquidations that cleared out weaker investors and reset the market dynamics.

Although this correction was painful, it served a necessary function. Valuations have since stabilised, leverage has been largely eradicated, and Amber Data asserts that the overall market structure is now healthier. However, the current recovery is still delicate, as liquidity remains limited and previous trading strategies like the carry trade no longer hold their previous appeal. According to Amber Data, the market is structurally sound but still lacks a strong catalyst for a significant move forward.

The ‘Muddle Through’ Phase

Amber Data forecasts a 50% probability that Bitcoin will trade in the range of $90,000 to $120,000 in its base scenario. This situation anticipates prolonged consolidation until a major macroeconomic catalyst occurs.

Within this "muddle through" scenario, neither extreme negative nor positive conditions will prevail. Volatility may decrease, enthusiasm could fade, and both hopes for bullish breakouts and fears of bearish collapses may be frequently disappointed.

Indicators that could support this situation include basis annual percentage rates rebounding to 8-10%, consistent positive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, order book depth reverting to pre-crash levels, and funding rates stabilizing positively.

Amber Data also identifies a 25% probability for a more promising outcome where Bitcoin could rise between $120,000 and $180,000. In this optimistic case, an increase in institutional participation and sovereign adoption could create a beneficial loop of growing investment.

Bitcoin
The daily chart illustrates Bitcoin's drop back toward $68,000 on Friday. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

For this bullish scenario to confirm, key signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows surpassing $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% due to heightened demand for leverage, and new HODL wave data indicating significant fresh capital entering the market.

Conversely, Amber Data highlights a 20% chance of a bearish scenario where Bitcoin might trade between $60,000 and $80,000. This situation could arise if macroeconomic conditions worsen more than anticipated, leading global markets to adopt a risk-off approach.

Warning signs for this scenario would include ongoing weekly ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion, basis yields dropping below 3%, widespread redemptions of stablecoins indicating capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level.

Lastly, the report outlines a 5% probability "volatility and chop" scenario, where Bitcoin could fluctuate between $75,000 and $110,000 without a clear directional trend. Indicators for this scenario would consist of erratic funding rates, recurring spikes and drops in open interest as positions are liquidated, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without patterns.