Will MSTR Stock Price Decline Amid $900 Million Unrealized Loss in BTC Holdings?

The stock price of Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is facing renewed pressure as Bitcoin's price has dropped below $75,000, resulting in a significant unrealized loss of over $900 million on its BTC holdings. This situation raises concerns about the future direction of MSTR as investors consider potential volatility and the impact of Bitcoin’s price movement on the company’s stock.

Key Takeaways

MSTR's stock is currently down around 61% over six months, with recent trading near $149.71.
Strategy’s holdings of 712,647 BTC are now facing an unrealized loss exceeding $900 million.
The company's stock is closely linked to Bitcoin's price, leading to increased volatility.
Analysts suggest no immediate risk of forced selling, but the stock remains in a downward trend.
Future stock performance will greatly depend on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize above current levels.

Chart showing MSTR stock price consolidate

Bitcoin's Impact on Strategy's Stock

Bitcoin's recent drop below $75,000 has pushed Strategy Inc.'s holdings of 712,647 BTC into an unrealized loss that exceeds $900 million. Lookonchain reports that the average purchase price for these bitcoins was about $76,038, which puts the company's investments slightly below water after the recent market decline.

As Bitcoin fell below $75,000, Michael Saylor's Strategy is now facing an unrealized loss of over $900M on its 712,647 BTC holdings. Source
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 2, 2026

While this loss is not yet realized, it significantly affects Strategy's stock, which is highly correlated to Bitcoin's price movements. A recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicates that the company continues to leverage an at-the-market share sale program, along with issuing other securities to fund Bitcoin purchases.

This financing strategy has its pros and cons. When Bitcoin’s value rises, Strategy's shares typically increase at an accelerated pace. Conversely, when Bitcoin falls, the stock price can decline even more sharply due to concerns about dilution and the number of bitcoins each share represents, particularly during this recent selling phase.

Despite the current losses, Strategy has not indicated plans to shift its strategy. Founder Michael Saylor remains committed to a long-term investment in Bitcoin, and analysts assess that there is no immediate threat of having to sell shares due to the firm's debt situation.

The Potential for MSTR Stock Price Decline

The ability of Bitcoin to maintain its levels will heavily influence the next steps for MSTR. If Bitcoin continues to decline, it could lead to increased pressure on Strategy's stock, especially if concerns over dilution resurface. However, if Bitcoin stabilizes, the stock may find a stronger foundation after enduring months of decline.

From a technical standpoint, MSTR is currently in a distinct downward trend. The stock price is trading below all significant moving averages on the daily chart and is nearing the lower Bollinger Band, indicating strong downward momentum that may be nearing its limits. The middle band, located between $165 and $170, serves as a dynamic resistance point.

MSTR daily chart. Credit: TradingView

Though there has been some recovery from oversold conditions, the relative strength index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 mark, sitting around 40. This suggests that while there hasn't been a bullish reversal, selling pressure is starting to ease.

Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow, and volatility has diminished in recent sessions. This may lead to a sharp movement in either direction and often indicates a pause in the prevailing trend. Currently, the price is holding in a short-term support range between $145 and $150. A daily close below this range could open up the possibility for the stock to decline towards the low $130s.

Until MSTR can retake the mid-band and drive the RSI back above neutral, any rallies may continue to attract selling pressure. Unless Bitcoin experiences a more sustained recovery, Strategy’s stock is likely to remain volatile, with potential downside risks despite hints of short-term stabilization.