XRP Enters a Critical Period for Potential Price Rallies

XRP's weekly chart has entered a significant technical zone that has historically led to substantial price increases. A recent analysis shared on the social media platform X highlights a consistent pattern between XRP's price movements and its 50-week simple moving average (SMA). This indicator is closely monitored by traders and serves as a long-term trend gauge.

Key Takeaways

XRP's price has entered a historical zone that may lead to significant rallies.
The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) is a critical indicator for determining market trends.
Past cycles show that prolonged periods below the SMA often precede substantial upward movements.
XRP has historically rallied between 70% to 850% following similar patterns.
The key signal for a potential price recovery is a decisive weekly close above the 50-week SMA.

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Instead of concentrating on XRP's recent short-term volatility, which has demonstrated a bearish trend, the analysis focuses on extended periods where the price has remained below this moving average. These phases have historically marked the end of downward trends and the beginning of significant rallies.

Understanding the 50-Week SMA for XRP Cycles

Technical analysis of XRP’s price movement on the weekly candlestick chart, as shared by the user Steph on the social media platform X, reveals a recurring cycle related to the 50-week simple moving average (SMA).

This analysis is compelling because the 50-week SMA acts as a key barrier that distinguishes between bearish market conditions and bullish expansions across longer time frames. In XRP's case, previous cycles indicate that brief dips below this average have less impact compared to extended periods beneath it.

The accompanying XRP price chart illustrates the lengths of time XRP remained below the 50-week SMA before experiencing a momentum shift. The first notable instance occurred in 2017 when XRP stayed under the moving average for about 10 weeks, roughly equivalent to 70 days, before launching a sharp upward movement.

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Source: Chart from Steph on X

A similar trend was observed during the 2021 cycle, where the duration was shorter—lasting 49 days—but it still marked a pivotal point on the weekly chart. The most impressive shift occurred during the 2024 period, as XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for about 84 days, culminating in a significant rebound of approximately 850%.

XRP Found in a Similar Position Again

According to the analysis, XRP is currently in a phase of around seventy days below the 50-week SMA, aligning it with historical patterns witnessed in earlier cycles. Steph emphasized that XRP has now spent roughly 70 days below this moving average once more, indicating potential price movement to anticipate.

Historically, following these extended periods, XRP has demonstrated rallies ranging from 70% in 2021 to an astounding 850% in 2024. Should XRP break upward from its current structure, historical data implies that the first crucial sign of a recovery would be a decisive weekly closure above the 50-week SMA, paving the way for continued upward movement rather than an immediate pullback.

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XRP trading at $1.84 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com