XRP Follows 2016 Trend That Resulted in 69% Drop Before Massive Rally

XRP has faced challenges in gaining upward momentum recently, with its price struggling to remain above $2.15 earlier in the week before settling back just above the $2 mark. A long-term analysis by crypto analyst ChartNerd highlights that XRP’s price movement since its all-time high of $3.65 in July bears a striking resemblance to a phase during the 2016 market cycle, suggesting a potential upcoming massive rally.

Key Takeaways

XRP’s recent price behavior resembles a previous trend in 2016, suggesting a possible upcoming rally.
A significant 69% correction could still occur, potentially driving XRP down below $1.
Current market dynamics may be setting the stage for a larger rally, as seen in past trends.
The expected recovery could lead to substantial gains in the latter part of 2026.

XRP

Mirroring 2016: Rejection and ABC Correction Structure

ChartNerd notes that the current price structure of XRP closely resembles actions seen in late 2016. Back then, XRP’s price rejected an area of accumulated supply and transitioned into an ABC corrective pattern. This correction led to a rapid decline of 69% that extended into the first quarter of 2017.

While the decline was significant, bringing XRP down to as low as $0.00240, it marked the conclusion of a correction rather than the end of a bullish market phase.

The accompanying chart illustrates a similar rejection pattern currently forming, as XRP’s price declined after reaching its latest all-time high in July. Since that peak, the monthly price chart has shown multiple red candles, with monthly closes consistently below their openings.

XRP Price Chart XRPUSD currently trading at $2.03. Chart: TradingView

At the time of this report, XRP is approximately 44% down from its all-time high. This situation indicates that a full 69% correction has yet to occur. If history repeats itself, a complete 69% ABC-style movement from the all-time high could drive XRP below the $1 mark, potentially reaching as low as $0.8, with this downturn expected to unfold into the first quarter of 2026.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @ChartNerdTA

Possible Correction May Set the Stage for a Larger Rally

Currently, XRP's trading price is at $2.04. A deeper retracement below $1 would represent a 51% decrease from this level. Such a significant pullback could be hard to fathom, especially with the ongoing interest in Spot XRP ETFs. Furthermore, a drop of this magnitude could challenge market confidence and encourage many bullish traders to withdraw.

Nonetheless, from a technical perspective, this scenario is viewed as a structural reset. In 2017, consolidation following a crash laid the groundwork for one of XRP's most significant rallies, ultimately yielding gains exceeding 110,000%.

If this expected sequence unfolds, the true bullish action might emerge in late 2026. Following the anticipated reset, charts project a long-term rally towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, with a potential price target around $27. The visual projection from the chart above indicates a multi-month growth opportunity with a possible increase of 2,300% after completing the correction phase.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView