XRP Indicator Signals Potential Bullish Trend — Under the Radar for Many Traders

XRP is currently facing selling pressure. After several weeks of trading below the $1.50 mark, it is now approaching a key support level. Interestingly, an important indicator, which many traders might not be paying attention to, has just changed in a way that could be significant.

Key Takeaways

XRP’s Sharpe Ratio has turned positive at 0.0267, indicating improved risk-adjusted returns.
Recent Recovery: The 30-day average return has also increased, marking the start of a potential bullish trend.
Market Divergence: There is a notable difference between what risk-adjusted data shows and the actual market price.
Current Price Pressure: XRP is trading at $1.3365, reflecting ongoing selling pressure and testing previous support levels.
Downtrend Continuation: XRP has been in a downtrend since November 2025, with lower highs observed.

XRP Indicator Signals Potential Bullish Trend — Under the Radar for Many Traders

A report from Arab Chain examining risk-adjusted performance data on Binance has highlighted a positive shift in XRP’s Sharpe Ratio, which has increased to 0.0267. This uptick indicates the first continuous improvement in risk-adjusted returns after months of negative figures. Although these numbers might seem small, they suggest a meaningful change in market dynamics.

Positive Signs for XRP Amid Selling Pressure

The current situation for XRP is underscored by data from Arab Chain. The recent uptick in the Sharpe Ratio to 0.0267 and the rising 30-day average return to 0.00063 signal a potential turning point. This is the first sign of improvement in risk-adjusted returns after an extended period of stagnation and negative values.

While the numbers themselves are modest, their significance lies in the direction of the movement following a prolonged stretch of poor performance. This shift indicates that even though the price remains under pressure, there are emerging signs of a recovery.

Four Months of Negative Trends Coming to an End

According to Arab Chain, the historical context sheds light on this recent trend. From October to December, the Sharpe Ratio lingered in negative territory. During this phase, XRP holders were taking on significant risk without adequate returns. This challenging environment lasted for nearly three months.

February marked a pivotal low point for XRP when the price plummeted, causing a sharp decline in the Sharpe Ratio. However, following this collapse, a gradual recovery started, culminating in March when the Sharpe Ratio shifted into positive territory for the first time since the market began to weaken.

Arab Chain's analysis suggests that if this upward trend in the Sharpe Ratio continues—indicating that returns are improving while volatility remains controlled—then a more stable and bullish market environment could be supported. Conversely, if the ratio dips back into negative territory, conditions may worsen again.

Testing Crucial Support Levels

Currently, XRP is trading at $1.3365, down 1.79% on the day. The session commenced at $1.3608, peaked at $1.3726, and then declined to a low of $1.3340—a movement indicative of a potential breakdown.

XRP consolidates around the $1.33 support | Source: XRPUSDT chart on TradingView

Today's trading dynamics are significant, as XRP has been in a clear downtrend since November 2025, consistently forming lower highs. Recent price recoveries were met with selling pressure at lower levels.

All three major moving averages are in decline, highlighting the downward trend and indicating that the price is positioned below all of them. A crucial indicator, the 50-day MA, has crossed below the 100-day MA, resulting in a confirmed "death cross." The 200-day MA is much higher, located around $2.20, making it a distant benchmark.

The last meaningful support level on the chart is the February capitulation low of $1.15. If XRP closes below $1.33 today, it could signal a move towards this lower boundary again—a potential risk, not a certainty, based on current structural levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT; chart data from TradingView.com