XRP Market Dynamics Resemble Early 2022, Glassnode Warns

Summary: Glassnode has observed that XRP's market structure is reverting to a configuration reminiscent of February 2022, where newer investors are acquiring XRP at lower prices, potentially impacting selling behavior as older holders face losses.

Key Takeaways

Glassnode points out that XRP is entering a market structure similar to February 2022.
Recent buyers are purchasing XRP below the cost basis of older holders, leading to potential selling pressure.
The $2 price level is psychologically significant for XRP traders, marking a volatile trading zone.
Past performance in February 2022 showed drastic price fluctuations influenced by broader market risks.

XRP news

Understanding XRP's Current Market Structure

In a recent note shared on X, analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted that XRP appears to be drifting back into a cost-basis structure last observed in February 2022. Newer buyers are accumulating XRP at price points that place earlier investors at a loss, creating a scenario where these dynamics can significantly influence selling pressure at critical price levels.

Implications for XRP's Price Action

According to Glassnode, the primary observation is that wallets that have been active recently—typically over a span of one week to one month—are acquiring XRP at prices that are lower than those of mid-term holders, who hold XRP for six to twelve months. This situation reveals that the current demand is entering the market at lower price points than a notable group of mid-term holders had initially invested.

This price relationship is crucial since different holder groups tend to react distinctly when prices approach their respective cost bases. When the market price dips below a cohort's realized price, that group is generally considered to be at a loss. If the price recovers towards that level, some merchants in that group may rush to sell at breakeven, which adds to the overhead supply and may limit price increases until it is fully absorbed.

Glassnode's "Realized Price by Age" chart (using a 7-day moving average) illustrates this concept. The chart highlights a gap between the realized prices of short-term holders and those who have held XRP for six to twelve months during the recent price consolidation period, reinforcing the comparison to February 2022.

XRP Realized Price by Age (7-day MA) | Source: X @glassnode

Currently, with XRP's price hovering slightly below the $2 mark, an earlier post from Glassnode dated November 24, 2025, draws attention again. In that analysis, Glassnode noted that $2 serves as a significant psychological level for XRP holders, where the stress among this group becomes particularly visible. Since early 2025, each time XRP retested the $2 mark, it resulted in losses ranging from $0.5 billion to $1.2 billion weekly, as many holders exited their positions at a loss when the price revisited this critical level.

These estimates of realized losses underscore that the $2 level is not merely a price point but a behavioral threshold where the willingness to hold or sell shifts dramatically, potentially leading to a cluster of forced selling.

Historical Context: February 2022

Notably, in February 2022, XRP experienced a sharp price journey: after dropping to around $0.6034 on February 2, it surged to a peak of approximately $0.8758 by February 8. Subsequently, it retraced in the latter part of the month due to escalating macroeconomic risks, heading back down to around $0.70 by February 23–24—roughly 20% off from its earlier high—before closing the month at around $0.7856 on February 28.

This late-month decline coincided with the geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine, which broadly impacted risk assets and drove significant declines in major cryptocurrencies, illustrating the interconnectedness of global events and market reaction.

As of now, XRP is trading at $1.9294.

XRP price chart
XRP remains above the 100-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com