XRP Must Maintain Key Level to Avoid Shift to Bear Market

XRP

The price of XRP experienced a significant drop amid a broader selloff in the cryptocurrency market, hitting an intraday low of $1.57 in the last 24 hours. This swift decline emphasizes XRP’s long-term trend, which is approaching an important level of its 33-month exponential moving average (EMA).

According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto's technical analysis shared on X, while the recent dip below the 33-month EMA does not necessarily indicate the end of XRP's upward trajectory, it is crucial for XRP to close above a specific level to avoid confirming a bearish macro trend.

Understanding the Breakdown Signal Below the 33 EMA

As of now, XRP's price has stabilized around $1.65 after experiencing a few hours of high volatility that led many traders to reevaluate the market landscape. Egrag Crypto's analysis indicates that XRP recently dipped slightly below the 33 EMA on the monthly candlestick chart.

The analyst highlights a critical condition: if XRP confirms a monthly close below $1.60 and the 33 EMA, it could signal a macro bearish trend based on historical data rather than market sentiment or opinion. The analysis shows that XRP has consistently adhered to the 33 EMA as a long-term trend indicator across various market cycles. Typically, violations of this EMA have preceded extended correction phases. Since early 2025, XRP has been trading above the 33 EMA, despite experiencing corrective periods. Currently, however, XRP is trading dangerously close to this EMA, increasing the risk of a breakdown.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X

Implications for XRP’s Price Movement

There is a real risk that XRP could shift into a macro bear trend. Nevertheless, there are also compelling reasons to anticipate a potential upward rebound for the digital asset. A key point made in Egrag's analysis is that historically, XRP's most significant price increases did not rely on a robust bull market environment.

XRPUSD now trading at $1.66. Chart: TradingView

Depending on how XRP moves from its current price around $1.60, there are two historical patterns that could emerge. The first scenario is akin to the price movement in 2021, which, based on similar market conditions, could lead to an approximate 340% upward surge, pushing the price to around the $7 mark.

The second scenario mirrors the 2017 cycle, which hints at an even larger structural expansion of about 1,600%, potentially targeting the $27 level. In both situations, previous rallies began from oversold states and compression regions, rather than from an anticipated strong bullish macro confirmation.

While the analysis warns that a drop below $1.60 could trigger panic selling and reinforce narratives of a bear market, it also notes that such conditions have historically marked the exit point for late sellers just before significant upward volatility ensues.

Key Takeaways

XRP fell to $1.57 during a recent market selloff, raising concerns about its long-term trend.
The price needs to close above $1.60 to avoid signaling a macro bearish trend.
Analysis indicates a potential for significant price rebounds, reminiscent of past market performances.
Historical patterns suggest both bullish and bearish scenarios could arise from current price levels.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView