XRP Open Interest Hits Lowest Level Since 2024: Can It Surge by 600% Again?

XRP's open interest has recently fallen to a level not seen since last year, a period when the altcoin experienced a remarkable surge of approximately 600%. According to insights from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, this decline could signify a bullish trend for XRP, potentially leading to new highs.

Key Takeaways

XRP's open interest has dropped to a low not seen since 2024, aligning with a previous surge of about 600%.
A reversal in trader behavior is noted, with reduced leverage usage in the derivatives market.
The decrease in open interest may indicate a transition to a more stable market environment focused on authentic demand.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about a significant rally for XRP, with potential price predictions around $4.5 in the near future.

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XRP's Open Interest Declines to Record Lows

In a recent blog post, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain reported that the open interest for XRP on Binance has plummeted to its lowest point since 2024. The analysis of data from the XRP Ledger on the crypto exchange reveals a significant rebalancing in the derivatives market, with the open interest now near $453 million—marking a low not seen since late last year.

Changing Trader Behaviors

Arab Chain emphasized that this decline indicates a substantial shift in trader behavior, highlighting a notable reduction in the use of leverage compared to earlier periods. Earlier this year, XRP's price had been largely driven by leverage, with open interest in XRP futures contracts exceeding $1 billion on several occasions, coinciding with notable price spikes.

In mid-2025, open interest once again surged to levels similar to those observed earlier in the year, resulting in significant price volatility for XRP. However, Arab Chain pointed out that the current situation is markedly different, with open interest gradually and sharply declining, suggesting a significant withdrawal of short-term speculators.

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Source: Chart from CryptoQuant

Implications of Declining Open Interest

The analyst noted that the drop in XRP's open interest has two significant implications. First, it suggests a lower risk appetite and diminishing momentum in the derivatives market, which can explain the erratic price behavior in the absence of substantial, liquidity-driven market movements.

Second, this contraction symbolizes a healthy structural transition by reducing the risk of forced liquidations and mitigating the pressures that often arise from excessive leverage. Arab Chain pointed out that periods of diminished open interest typically indicate transitional phases in the market, where it shifts from a speculative environment to one that relies more on genuine spot demand.

XRP Poised for a Potential Rally

Crypto analysts are now contemplating that XRP may be on the verge of another significant rally. However, whether it can achieve a 600% increase like it did last year remains uncertain. In a post on X, analyst Niels observed that XRP is forming a higher low at its current level, resembling a similar structure from April of this year, which preceded a new all-time high (ATH). He mentioned that if XRP exceeds the $2 mark, it could give bullish investors an upper hand.

Predictions for Future Price Movements

Another analyst, Chart Nerd, speculated that XRP might reach a new ATH in the upcoming price movement. He indicated that XRP is currently in the midst of an ABC reset, revealing a chart that suggests XRP could soar to as high as $4.5 during this upward movement, which is anticipated to occur in the first half of the coming year.

As of now, XRP is trading at approximately $1.84, having experienced a slight decline over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

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XRP trading at $1.85 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com