XRP Price Revisits Long-Term Trendline That Has Driven Major Rallies

XRP price

The XRP price has returned to a significant technical level that has historically been linked to its most substantial rallies. After experiencing a notable 62% downturn that saw it drop to approximately $1.10 on February 6, the token is testing its long-standing ascending support trendline once more. Meanwhile, the larger cryptocurrency market is exhibiting signs of recovery this week, providing a sense of relief for investors. On Wednesday, XRP surged about 6%, while Bitcoin (BTC) crossed the crucial $70,000 threshold, restoring some optimism amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Key Highlights

XRP's price is retesting an important ascending trendline, which has historically led to significant rallies, including a 630% increase in 2024 and over 60,000% in 2017.
This trendline retest is occurring for the first time with a fully established exchange-traded fund (ETF) infrastructure for XRP.
Since its launch in November 2025, US spot XRP ETFs have recorded $1.24 billion in inflows and have accumulated around 797 million XRP.
Institutional wallets have added 170 million XRP during the most recent price dip, while Ripple locked away 700 million XRP to manage supply.

Historic XRP Price Support

In a recent report, market analyst Sam Daodu highlighted that the XRP price is currently supported by the same rising trendline that has historically preceded major upward moves — notably, a remarkable 630% increase in 2024 and a staggering 60,000% surge in 2017. What sets this retest apart, according to Daodu, is the backing of a fully operational spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) infrastructure.

Since their inception in November 2025, US spot XRP ETFs have seen a total of $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows over four straight months of positive performance. Approximately 797 million XRP are now held within ETF custody. Concurrently, institutional wallets have purchased an additional 170 million XRP during the latest price dip. Furthermore, on March 1, Ripple re-locked 700 million XRP into escrow, maintaining its typical release schedule and restricting new supply from entering the market.

March traditionally brings another advantage for XRP. Over the past twelve years, the cryptocurrency has averaged a return of 18% during this month, marking it as the statistically strongest month in the first quarter.

$4 Target in Sight

From a technical analysis perspective, the $1.27 level serves as the first area of support to watch closely. This level corresponds with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and has acted as a bear market floor during the recent correction. Below this, the $1.10–$1.11 range signifies the exact position of the long-term ascending trendline that held steady in February. A decisive drop beneath $1.10 would represent the first breach of this channel since 2015, potentially exposing the XRP price to a deeper decline toward the $0.85–$1.00 range.

On the upside, $1.47 is the first Fibonacci resistance level to monitor, closely succeeded by the $1.50 neckline of the double bottom pattern. A sustained close above $1.50 would confirm this pattern and could trigger a move towards $1.68–$1.70. Beyond this range, on-chain data suggests that approximately 1.85 billion XRP have been accumulated between $1.76 and $1.80, a region where holders may prefer to exit at breakeven, likely leading to significant resistance.

XRP price Daily chart indicating XRP’s recovery above $1.40 on Wednesday. Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com

The most substantial supply cluster is located between $2.40 and $2.60; a weekly close above this range would invalidate the broader descending trend and indicate a more decisive trend change. By combining the historical strength of March, signals of capitulation, and structural supply constraints, Daodu suggests that the XRP price could potentially reach between $2.50 and $4.00 by late 2026.

Image credit: OpenArt, Chart source: TradingView.com