XRP Supply Decreases While ETFs Ramp Up Purchases Before 2026

As XRP approaches a critical structural phase in its history, its price movement has predominantly been bearish, with market sentiment cautious. However, on-chain data reveals a different picture.

Key Takeaways

XRP's supply on centralized exchanges has fallen to about 1.5 billion XRP, its lowest level in over a year.
This decline occurs amid the rise of Spot XRP ETFs, which have absorbed around 750 million XRP.
On-chain data reveals a potential setup for bullish momentum as supply contracts.
Technically, XRP is resting on critical support around the $1.90 to $2.00 range, with signs of oversold conditions.
Analysts predict a possible shift to bullish momentum for XRP as we head into 2026.

Recently analyzed information from Glassnode indicates that XRP balances on centralized exchanges have dropped to approximately 1.5 billion XRP, marking the lowest level seen in over a year. This trend is occurring concurrently with the accumulation of XRP by newly launched ETFs, laying the groundwork for potential changes in the altcoin’s price dynamics as 2026 approaches.

Declining XRP Exchange Balances Reach Yearly Lows

Data from Glassnode's metric on XRP balances held on exchanges illustrates a clear downtrend throughout 2025. At the start of the year, around 4 billion XRP was stored on centralized platforms. Since then, the balance has gradually decreased, with a significant decline noted in the fourth quarter.

Currently, XRP held on exchanges is compressing towards the 1.5 billion mark, one of the lowest levels recorded in recent years. Interestingly, this decline is happening amidst a downturn in XRP's price, indicating that more holders are opting to shift their tokens into longer-term storage, while some are selling their holdings. This trend is crucial for potential bullish momentum, as reduced exchange balances lower sell pressure in the short term, making cryptocurrencies more responsive to increased demand.

XRP: Balance On Exchanges (Total)

A key player in this reduction of supply is the US-based Spot XRP ETFs, which are becoming a significant source of demand. Market estimates suggest that approximately 750 million XRP have been absorbed by six Spot ETF products since the first one was launched in November.

As ETFs continue to withdraw XRP from exchanges, the available liquid supply for the spot market diminishes. Although this dynamic does not prompt an immediate price reaction, it shifts the balance between supply and demand, which we may begin to observe by 2026.

XRP market cap currently at $113 billion. Chart: TradingView

Weekly Chart Indicates Exhaustion as XRP Finds Support

While on-chain data indicates tightening supply, the technical conditions are showcasing a similar trend. Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto recently highlighted that XRP is presently positioned on a significant horizontal support area within the weekly timeframe.

The chart demonstrates that XRP's price is now consolidating in the $1.90 to $2.00 range after a lengthy descent from mid-2025 highs near $3.50, reverting to a price level that previously served as a launch point earlier in the cycle.

Moreover, the weekly Stochastic RSI sits in extreme oversold territory, suggesting that the selling pressure has already accomplished much of its task.

XRP/US Dollar Weekly Chart. Source: @Steph_iscrypto On X

Steph's analysis observed that turning points often emerge when the downside momentum is depleted, leaving little strength for sellers to push prices further down. In light of this, traders can anticipate a shift towards bullish momentum for XRP in early 2026.