Asia Market Update: Bitcoin Steady at $93K, Stocks Flat as Weak US Data Enhances Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Bitcoin remained stable around $93,000 during Thursday's Asian trading session, while regional stock markets experienced a tepid start. This was largely due to soft economic data from the US, which reinforced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $93,609, marking a 0.9% increase.
Ether's price has risen by 5.9%, now standing at $3,215.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is at $3.27 trillion, reflecting a 1.8% rise.
Weak US economic indicators have raised the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Experiences a Remarkable Recovery

Investment analyst and The Coin Bureau co-founder, Nic Puckrin, commented on Bitcoin's impressive bounce-back, attributing it to a “perfect storm of good news” that has shifted momentum toward bullish sentiments. He noted significant developments such as Vanguard lifting its long-standing ban on Bitcoin ETFs and Bank of America's recommendation for a 1% to 4% allocation to cryptocurrencies, which could potentially channel up to $700 billion into the sector. Additionally, there is growing optimism about Kevin Hassett, a pro-crypto figure, becoming the new Fed chair.

“With a rate cut on December 10 largely anticipated, all eyes are now on 2026 monetary policy forecasts, making Hassett a favorable pick for the markets,” Puckrin added.

Current Market Overview

Bitcoin: $93,609, up 0.9%
Ether: $3,215, up 5.9%
XRP: $2.20, up 0.7%
Total Crypto Market Cap: $3.27 Trillion, up 1.8%

Bitcoin Aiming for Breakout as Traders Watch US Jobless Data

According to Akshat Siddhant, lead quantitative analyst at Mudrex, a breakthrough above current Bitcoin levels could pave the way toward the $103,000 supply zone. Traders are closely monitoring US weekly jobless claims, which may support Bitcoin's upward movement if they indicate a need for looser monetary policy.

In the equities market, Asian trading showed mixed results. Japan’s Nikkei 225 saw a rise of about 0.8%, while the MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan decreased by roughly 0.1%, dragged down by losses in Korea and New Zealand. Chinese markets remained mostly unchanged, with slight increases in some indices, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.

Rate Cut Probability Increases Amid Soft US Data

US index futures remained steady after Wednesday’s gains, with contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq showing modest increases. Meanwhile, European futures exhibited a flat to slightly weaker trend, with the DAX and FTSE 100 declining slightly, whereas the CAC 40 edged up.

On Wall Street, small-cap stocks led the charge, with the Russell 2000 rising about 1.9% and the S&P 500 achieving its second consecutive gain after the US private payrolls figure showed its most significant decline in over two and a half years. Additionally, a survey from the Institute for Supply Management indicated a contraction in services employment for November and a drop in the prices paid subindex to a seven-month low, even as overall services activity remained steady near 52.6.

The softer economic indicators have solidified the case for an imminent rate cut. Fed funds futures now suggest approximately an 89% probability of a 25 basis point reduction at next week's meeting, up from around 83% a week prior, as indicated by CME’s FedWatch tool.

Dollar Slides to Five-Week Low as Investors Assess Fed's Future Moves

The dollar index dipped about 0.4% to 98.878, marking a five-week low and extending its losing streak into a ninth session. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury held steady near 4.07%, following concerns expressed by bond investors to the Treasury regarding the possibility of aggressive rate cuts by Hassett, in line with President Trump's preferences.

Investors are also wrestling with a backlog of US economic data due to a record 43-day government shutdown earlier this year, which has disrupted the usual flow of official reports. As these delayed data points are gradually released, traders are placing greater emphasis than usual on private sector surveys and high-frequency indicators to ascertain the Fed's potential direction.

The upcoming major macroeconomic event is the release of the personal consumption expenditures index on Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Until then, markets are largely operating under the assumption of a December rate cut being almost certain, with expectations for 2025 and 2026 policies hinging on how swiftly economic growth and employment rates adjust from this point forward.