Coinbase Executive Warns that Quantum Computing Poses a Threat to One-Third of Bitcoin Supply

A senior executive at Coinbase, David Duong, has raised alarms regarding the potential impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin's security, suggesting that approximately one-third of its total supply could be at risk under certain conditions. This warning has sparked increased awareness in the financial sector regarding quantum risks, suggesting that preparations may be necessary to secure Bitcoin's future.

Key Takeaways

Quantum Computing Threat: A senior Coinbase executive has warned that quantum computing could jeopardize about 33% of Bitcoin's supply.
Institutional Awareness: Firms like BlackRock are beginning to acknowledge quantum risks, highlighting the need for proactive measures.
Security Vulnerabilities: About 6.51 million BTC are at risk due to vulnerabilities in legacy address types, which might be exploited by advanced quantum computers.
Debate Continue: The crypto community remains divided on the urgency of addressing these threats, with some believing preparations are already in progress.

Coinbase Exec Warns Quantum Computing Threatens 33% of Bitcoin Supply — Here’s Why

Understanding the Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

The Concerning Reality of Quantum Computing

A recent post by David Duong, Global Head of Investment Research at Coinbase, has raised significant concerns about how quantum computers could change the landscape of Bitcoin’s security. He stated that Bitcoin is possibly entering a “new regime” due to advancements in quantum computing, even if the immediate threat isn’t dire.

Duong highlights that institutional investors are becoming increasingly aware of these risks. For example, BlackRock pointed out quantum-related vulnerabilities in its updated prospectus for the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF in May 2025. Additionally, guidance from U.S. and EU authorities urges critical infrastructure to transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2035.

Research Highlights: Quantum Risk to One-Third of Bitcoin

A central point of concern among researchers is what they refer to as “Q-day,” the moment when sufficiently powerful quantum computers could threaten current public-key systems. Bitcoin utilizes elliptic curve cryptography to safeguard its wallets and relies on the SHA-256 algorithm for mining.

Duong explained that quantum systems capable of executing Shor’s algorithm might potentially uncover private keys from already exposed public keys, possibly enabling hackers to seize funds. Meanwhile, Grover’s algorithm may at some stage enhance mining efficiency.

Currently, the more pressing issue is the security of Bitcoin signatures. According to Duong's analysis of on-chain data, approximately 6.51 million BTC, which comprises around 32.7% of the total supply, is stored in address types particularly vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks.

Image depicting Bitcoin vulnerabilities

These vulnerable addresses include legacy Pay-to-Public-Key outputs, basic multisig scripts, and certain Taproot configurations where public keys are visible on the blockchain. Additionally, coins from the Satoshi era are notably included in this vulnerable classification.

Furthermore, every Bitcoin transaction briefly exposes a public key during spending, creating a potential attack window if a sufficiently advanced quantum computer becomes available.

Rethinking Bitcoin's Future in the Quantum Age

The warning from Duong continues a larger debate that has gained momentum over the past year. On-chain analysts are recognizing that a significant portion of Bitcoin has remained inactive. Data reveals that over 30% of the total supply has not been moved for at least five years.

Some researchers believe that these dormant coins would be prime targets for quantum attacks if they become a reality. Others argue that the greater challenge lies in coordinating an effective response from the Bitcoin network.

Differing Perspectives on Quantum Risk

However, opinions on the urgency of this situation diverge in the crypto community. In December, Blockstream CEO Adam Back countered claims about an imminent quantum crisis, stating that developers have been quietly working on long-term solutions without causing market panic.

Contrarily, venture investor Nic Carter believes that many within the ecosystem are still ignoring the potential threat. He points to government efforts and increasing investment in quantum technology as indicators that this risk warrants more attention.

Timelines for the realization of quantum threats vary among experts. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warns that without upgrades, we could see quantum threats arise within a decade. In contrast, others suggest that these risks are further down the road.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman, maintains a more optimistic viewpoint. He argues that any quantum breakthroughs would ultimately strengthen Bitcoin, as active coins could transition to improved standards while inactive coins stay locked, thereby decreasing the effective supply.

Even with varying perspectives, the need for precautionary measures is acknowledged. Bitcoin developers are exploring post-quantum signature schemes, and the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology has finalized various quantum-resistant standards as of 2024.

Implementing these standards in Bitcoin would necessitate widespread consensus and likely a hard fork, both complicated by numerous inactive wallets and the decentralized nature of Bitcoin governance.

Lastly, researchers continue to caution that adversaries may already be harvesting blockchain data today in anticipation of future quantum advancements.