Gemini Exchange Gears Up for Launch of Prediction Market Contracts

Gemini, founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is preparing to launch prediction market contracts, pending approval from U.S. regulators. The exchange aims to enter a competitive market dominated by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, amid increasing interest in prediction markets.

Key Takeaways

Gemini is planning to introduce prediction market contracts, awaiting regulatory approval from the CFTC.
The approval process may become more prolonged due to the recent government shutdown.
The prediction market sector is witnessing significant demand, with competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket leading the way.
Major players in the crypto space, including Coinbase and Robinhood, are also expanding into prediction markets.

Gemini Prediction market

Gemini Awaits U.S. Regulatory Approval

Gemini has applied to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to establish a designated contract market. This application, submitted in May, seeks to introduce prediction-based derivatives on its platform. However, the timeline for approval can stretch from months to years, particularly with delays potentially caused by the recent government shutdown.

The crypto exchange, which completed its IPO in September, raising $425 million and marking a significant launch for a digital asset platform, hinted at this new initiative in its filing. The firm plans to offer event contracts related to economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts.

Growing Demand for Prediction Markets

The initiative comes at a time of increasing interest in prediction markets, as evidenced by platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which have seen record volume growth. Kalshi has already received CFTC registration, while Polymarket is expected to resume operations in the U.S. soon.

An investment analyst from Needham remarked to Bloomberg that Gemini's expansion into prediction markets represents an attractive opportunity that goes beyond its current offerings.

Simultaneously, the CME Group is also exploring opportunities in this area. Moreover, Coinbase recently announced its plans to broaden its scope by incorporating event contracts, highlighting its strategy as part of their "Everything Exchange" approach.

Additionally, Robinhood has announced an innovative prediction market where users can trade on the results of various games.

James Newman, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at the sports blockchain company Chiliz, commented to Cryptonews that this launch signifies a growing trend in blockchain-based fan engagement platforms. Newman emphasized the importance of sustainably integrating into the prediction market space while balancing innovation with responsibility.