Nvidia Earnings Report Today: Can Wall Street Anticipate a Q3 Surprise?

Summary:
Today, November 19, Wall Street eyes Nvidia's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report, an event anticipated to have significant implications for the tech sector. Analysts predict a revenue of $54.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 57%, alongside earnings per share of $1.25. Given Nvidia's recent stock volatility and broader market concerns, the report could lead to noteworthy shifts in market valuation.

Key Takeaways:

Nvidia's Q3 earnings report is highly anticipated, with expected revenues of $54.9 billion.
Current market sentiment is cautious, with Nvidia's stock down nearly 14.5% since October's high.
Options markets predict a possible 7-8% swing in Nvidia's stock price post-earnings.
Analysts maintain a generally optimistic outlook, with price targets being raised ahead of earnings.
Upcoming Q4 guidance will be critical; anything below $61.5 billion may lead to a selloff.

Wall Street Awaits Nvidia’s Q3 Earnings Report

Wall Street is on high alert as Nvidia prepares to release its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report today, November 19, following the market close. This event is regarded as one of the most critical earnings announcements of the year.

Analysts anticipate that Nvidia will report $54.9 billion in revenue, representing a significant increase of 57% compared to last year. Earnings per share are forecasted at $1.25. However, the expectations for the world's most valuable company, which recently reached a market capitalization of over $5 trillion, are particularly high.

Nvidia's stock closed at $181.36 on Tuesday, reflecting a nearly 14.5% decline from its all-time peak of $212.19 reached on October 29. The drop is fueled by rising concerns regarding AI-related valuations and the sustainability of substantial infrastructure investments, leading to a broader selloff in the technology sector.

According to Reuters, options markets are indicating a potential 7-8% price movement in either direction after the results are announced. This volatility could lead to a market value shift of around $320 billion, marking it as one of the largest post-earnings price fluctuations in Nvidia's history.

Challenges and Concerns for Nvidia

Nvidia is under increased scrutiny amid growing skepticism about the sustainability of the AI sector. Notable investors, including Michael Burry, have publicly disclosed short positions against Nvidia, citing concerns over potential accounting issues relating to chip depreciation. Meanwhile, Peter Thiel's hedge fund has divested its entire $100 million stake in Nvidia, and SoftBank has sold off $5.8 billion in shares to invest in its own AI projects.

The broader market environment also poses challenges; the Nasdaq has declined by more than 4% in November, marking its most significant monthly drop since March. This downturn is exacerbated by diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing inflation worries affecting risk assets.

Revenue Focus: Data Centers and AI Demand

For this quarter, data center revenue is expected to account for approximately $49 billion, spurred by robust demand for Hopper chips and the eagerly anticipated rollout of the Blackwell platform. CEO Jensen Huang has noted that demand from hyperscalers and foundational model creators is experiencing “incredible” growth.

Despite the recent selloff and concerns about overinflated valuations, many analysts remain optimistic. For instance, Stifel has raised its price target for Nvidia to $250 ahead of the earnings report, while Wedbush's Dan Ives hailed Nvidia as "a foundational piece" of the AI landscape.

Historically, Nvidia has surpassed earnings expectations in 19 out of the last 21 quarters, and there is a consensus that another “beat and raise” scenario might unfold.

However, the critical factor will be the guidance for Q4, with projections around $61.5 billion in revenue. Anything falling short of this figure could initiate a steep selloff.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment

Geopolitical challenges also play a pivotal role, as Nvidia's Q3 results will exclude any H20 chip sales to China due to export restrictions and new regulations requiring state-funded data centers to utilize only domestic AI chips.

Despite these challenges, retail investor sentiment appears overwhelmingly positive, with Polymarket indicating a 96% chance that Nvidia will exceed its quarterly earnings expectations.

Nvidia Earnings Report Today

Market Update: Nvidia Earnings Set to Test the AI Trade

As Nvidia's earnings report approaches, the implications for the AI trade and broader technology market remain uncertain, with both optimism and skepticism shaping future investment decisions.