Polymarket Sees 1,200% Increase in Installs as Crypto Market Loses $150 Billion

Polymarket Sees 1,200% Increase in Installs as Crypto Market Loses $150 Billion – Are Traders Moving Away from Tokens?

Crypto traders are turning their backs on token speculation and instead flocking to prediction markets, a significant shift triggered by a staggering $150 billion decline in the altcoin market. Notably, app installs for platforms like Polymarket have soared from 30,000 to over 400,000 between January and December 2025, as reported by Bloomberg.

Key Takeaways

Massive Installs: Polymarket's app installs surged by 1,200% following a $150 billion downturn in the crypto market.
Shift to Prediction Markets: Traders are abandoning token speculation for prediction markets, which focus on real-world events.
Increased Trading Volume: Weekly trading volume in prediction markets rose dramatically from $500 million in June to nearly $6 billion in January.
Exodus of Crypto Natives: Traders are leaving memecoins for more stable prediction markets, although losses are still common.
Institutional Sentiment: Despite recent outflows, many institutions still consider Bitcoin undervalued.

The Surge in Prediction Market Activity

Weekly trading activity across platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi jumped from $500 million in June to nearly $6 billion in January, according to data from Dune. In contrast, downloads of crypto exchanges have dropped by more than 50% during the same timeframe.

Weekly Trading Volume in Prediction Markets

This transformation is indicative of the exhaustion felt within the token economy after Bitcoin plummeted nearly 30% from its peak in October 2025. Furthermore, over 11 million coins were effectively deemed dead last year, marking the largest extinction event in the history of cryptocurrency, as stated by CoinGecko.

CoinShares recently reported that digital asset investment products experienced outflows of $1.73 billion, the largest weekly decline since mid-November 2025. This trend is driven by dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts and a prevailing bearish market sentiment. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of $1.62 billion over four days, as hedge funds adjusted positions yielding less than 5%.

A New Approach to Trading: Prediction Markets

Many former memecoin traders are now gravitating towards prediction markets that provide binary odds on real-world events, rather than uncertain multi-year token roadmaps. For instance, Nikshep Saravanan, who pivoted from his digital startup to create HumanPlane, a prediction market research platform, emphasized that the change was necessary after losing funding and traction.

“Here I can do a lot more with no capital,” noted the 27-year-old Canadian. “There’s so much more interest here.”

Similarly, Tre Upshaw, who suffered losses trading memecoins like SafeMoon, now operates Polysights, an analytics platform for prediction markets. “I realized that’s just hyper-gambling,” he stated. “I got burned so many times on memecoins.”

However, losses are still common in prediction markets, with around 70% of trading addresses reporting realized losses. Conversely, fewer than 0.04% of Polymarket addresses have managed to capture over 70% of total profits amounting to $3.7 billion.

Despite the shift in focus, the infrastructure that supports these markets remains fundamentally crypto-based. On Polymarket, every aspect of trades, except for order matching, is conducted on-chain. This highlights blockchain technology's most sustained use case as interest in speculative trading wanes.

Crypto contracts have climbed to become the second-busiest trading category on Polymarket, up from fourth place just a year ago. Notional crypto trading volume has surged nearly tenfold across major platforms, according to the same Dune data.

Adoption of Prediction Markets by Major Crypto Platforms

In response to user demand, major cryptocurrency platforms are rapidly moving towards offering event contracts. For example, Coinbase introduced prediction markets in December via Kalshi routing. Analyst Owen Lau from Clear Street forecasts that Coinbase could generate approximately $700 million in prediction market revenue by 2025, while Robinhood is nearing a $300 million annual run rate.

Gemini and Crypto.com have also begun their ventures into prediction markets, with Crypto.com providing white-label services for Trump Media.

“As we add more instruments, they tend to complement each other,” remarked Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s head of consumer and business products, noting heightened user interest in a unified trading venue.

A survey conducted by Mizuho, mentioned by Bloomberg, revealed that users of Coinbase and Robinhood are nine times more likely to utilize prediction platforms compared to the general public.

Polymarket has re-entered the U.S. market after receiving CFTC approval, launching with very low taker fees at just 10 basis points and no fees for makers, making it the most competitive among major platforms. The platform has also introduced real estate betting, allowing crypto traders to speculate on housing prices.

Having raised $205 million across two funding rounds and received a $2 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange at a valuation close to $9 billion, Polymarket is well-positioned for growth. Similarly, Kalshi secured a $1 billion funding round and is now valued at $11 billion, with CNN as its official prediction market partner.

Despite the recent outflows, a report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode indicates that about 70% of institutions perceive Bitcoin as undervalued. Notably, 62% have sustained or increased their crypto positions since the downturn in October.

“Crypto markets are entering 2026 in a healthier state, with excess leverage having been flushed from the system,” stated David Duong, Coinbase’s Global Head of Research.