Prediction Markets: Robinhood's Fastest-Growing Revenue Stream

Robinhood has reported that prediction markets have quickly become one of its most lucrative offerings. The company plans to enhance its services by introducing a futures and derivatives exchange along with a clearinghouse.

Key Takeaways

Robinhood's prediction markets are its fastest-growing revenue source, with over nine billion contracts traded since launch.
The company plans to establish a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse by 2026, partnering with Susquehanna International Group.
Interest in prediction markets is increasing, with significant trading volumes reported on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Other crypto exchanges, such as Crypto.com and Gemini, are also expanding into prediction markets, indicating a trend in the industry.

Prediction markets are Robinhood’s fastest-growing money maker

In March, Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to launch its prediction markets, which have resulted in over nine billion traded contracts from more than one million users, as stated in a Tuesday announcement. JB Mackenzie, General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood, expressed enthusiasm about the “strong customer demand for prediction markets” and the company’s intent to capitalize on this growth.

Additionally, Robinhood aims to boost its commitment in the prediction markets sector, enhancing its infrastructure to provide better customer experiences and innovative products.

Upcoming Launch of Robinhood’s Derivatives Exchange in 2026

In this new venture, Robinhood will serve as the main partner and market maker, with Susquehanna International Group providing liquidity starting from day one. As part of its expansion, Robinhood will acquire MIAXdx, a derivatives clearing organization and swap execution facility licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The derivatives exchange is set to go live in 2026.

Rising Interest in Prediction Markets

This year has seen a surge in interest in prediction markets, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket maintaining solid trading volumes amid increased exposure in mainstream media. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US, reported a trading volume of $4.47 billion in the last 30 days, according to data from DeFi aggregator DefiLlama.

Predictions, Robinhood _Prediction market Kalshi has recorded a trading volume of $4.47 billion over the last 30 days. Source:_DefiLlama

In comparison, Polymarket, another US-based cryptocurrency prediction market, reported a trading volume of $3.58 billion over the same period.

Expanding into Prediction Markets

Crypto.com has also entered the prediction markets space, planning to launch a platform integrated with Trump Media. Additionally, Gemini, a prominent crypto exchange, announced on November 11 that it seeks to establish a prediction markets platform as part of its initiative to create a comprehensive "super app." They have filed to become a designated contract market with the CFTC for this purpose.

In another development, tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong revealed data on November 19 suggesting that Coinbase is also exploring the launch of its own prediction markets platform.