SBF’s Pardon Odds Increase After Trump’s Clemency to CZ – Will This Momentum Continue?

The odds of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) receiving a pardon from U.S. President Donald Trump surged after news that Trump had pardoned Binance founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao. The rise in Bankman-Fried's pardon odds has sparked discussions in the crypto community as he continues to appeal his conviction.

Key Takeaways

SBF's likelihood of receiving a pardon has increased significantly on Polymarket, moving from 6% to 12.5%.
This shift occurred after President Trump granted clemency to CZ.
Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for fraud and awaits a court appearance on his ongoing appeal.
He has claimed that his arrest was politically motivated to silence his testimony regarding crypto legislation.

SBF’s Increased Pardon Odds on Polymarket

The odds for Sam Bankman-Fried’s possible pardon shot up on the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, following the announcement of President Trump’s clemency to Binance's Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao. A recent poll titled “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” indicates that Bankman-Fried’s odds climbed over 6% within just 24 hours.

Initially, on Thursday morning, his odds of receiving a pardon were stable at 6%. That number spiked to 12.5% by the evening. By Friday afternoon, they had settled around 9.7%.

FTX Founder Speaks Out During Appeal

This increase in odds comes nearly two years after Bankman-Fried was convicted on serious criminal charges related to his leadership at FTX, the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange.

He was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison due to a massive scheme that defrauded investors of approximately $8 billion. During his trial, several of Bankman-Fried's former associates, including FTX's chief technical officer Gary Wang, former head of engineering Nishad Singh, and ex-Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison, testified against him.

Earlier this month, the former crypto mogul took to social media to assert that the Biden administration's anti-crypto stance influenced his arrest in 2022 to prevent him from testifying before Congress.

In a post shared on his official Gettr account, Bankman-Fried stated, “They had me arrested weeks before the crypto bill I was working on was set for a vote—and the night before I was set to testify before Congress.”

Currently, Bankman-Fried is appealing his conviction from November 2023 and is scheduled to return to court in New York City on November 3.