Trump Jails ‘Venezuela Leaker’: Silent Polymarket Whales After Profitable Bets

US President Donald Trump announced that an individual responsible for leaking sensitive information about Venezuela has been apprehended, which coincided with a series of successful bets placed on Polymarket regarding Venezuelan politics. The article explores the implications of these bets, the inactivity of certain accounts post-arrest, potential insider trading concerns, and calls for reform in prediction markets.

Key Takeaways

Trump declared that a leaker on Venezuela has been jailed following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro.
Certain accounts on Polymarket, which had made significant profitable bets on Maduro's ousting, have gone silent.
Concerns arise about insider trading in prediction markets, particularly with regards to classified government information.
Polymarket faces criticism over its handling of bets related to Maduro’s arrest and the definition of an "invasion."
Legislation is being proposed to limit trading in prediction markets by federal officials with access to confidential information.

The Arrest and Its Implications

Recently, US President Donald Trump announced in the Oval Office that a "leaker on Venezuela" has been found and jailed, following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump claimed that this individual could face a significant prison sentence due to their actions.

Although Trump did not name the leaker or directly mention betting markets, his statement sparked renewed interest in several Polymarket accounts that had made large, successful wagers on Maduro's potential removal from power shortly before the news broke.

Questions Arise: Smart Bets or Insider Information?

Recent analysis by blockchain firm Lookonchain revealed that two of the three wallets associated with Venezuela-focused bets have become inactive. These wallets ceased trading around the same time Trump suggested that the leaker had been detained.

One wallet, identified as 0xa72DB1, originally staked $5,800 and turned it into approximately $75,000 by wagering that Maduro would no longer be in power by January 31, 2026. Another account, 0x31a56e, invested around $34,000 and made more than $400,000 before vanishing from the platform on January 8.

In contrast, a third wallet, SBet365, remains active and recently placed a new bet predicting the removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by the end of January. This account had previously profited around $145,000 from bets related to Venezuela.

In early January, Lookonchain noted that these wallets were created and funded days in advance but made major bets just hours before Maduro's arrest, raising concerns about insider trading in prediction markets.

Legal and Ethical Concerns

Legal professionals emphasize that leaking sensitive government information could result in severe penalties under U.S. laws, especially the Espionage Act. Depending on the severity of the leak, individuals could face prison sentences ranging from several years to decades, along with hefty fines and the permanent loss of security clearance. Recent enforcement endeavors linked to Venezuela-related leaks indicate that authorities are approaching these situations with significant seriousness.

Polymarket's Challenges and Calls for Reform

Although Polymarket markets are publicly accessible, some critics argue that having access to confidential government or military information undermines trust in these platforms, which merge financial, gaming, and political forecasting elements.

Trump hinted at the possibility of more than one leaker, stating that the authorities would disclose further information if additional individuals are identified.

This controversy arises as Polymarket encounters backlash regarding its management of contracts related to Venezuela. On January 7, the platform announced it would not fulfill millions of dollars in wagers concerning whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela, despite Maduro’s capture in a U.S. operation. Polymarket clarified that the raid did not meet its criteria for an “invasion,” which it defined as military action intended to establish territorial control.

Over $10.5 million had been wagered on this result, and many traders were unhappy with the ruling, accusing Polymarket of changing its contractual interpretation retrospectively.

Additionally, on January 6, Representative Ritchie Torres announced plans to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. This proposed legislation aims to prevent federal officials and political appointees from trading in prediction market contracts linked to governmental or political actions when they possess nonpublic information.