U.S. Government Shutdown Expected to Conclude This Week, Say 88% of Polymarket Bettors

A recent poll on Polymarket indicates that a significant majority of bettors are optimistic about the U.S. government shutdown, with many predicting it will end by mid-November. This sentiment comes amid ongoing negotiations in Congress, with a minority of Democratic lawmakers supporting a deal to fund the government.

Key Takeaways

Majority Prediction: 88% of Polymarket bettors expect the U.S. government shutdown to end between November 12 and 15.
Shutdown Context: This shutdown could become the longest in U.S. history if it continues.
Possible Legislative Agreement: Some Democrats have taken steps toward a potential deal that would fund the government through January.
Dissent Among Democrats: Senator Elizabeth Warren has expressed her opposition to the proposed agreement, warning of its inadequacies in addressing healthcare costs.

Main Content

Insights from Polymarket Bettors on the Government Shutdown

Many participants in the Polymarket decentralized prediction market are forecasting that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown will come to a close between November 12 and November 15. The poll titled “When will the Government shutdown end?” reveals that a significant 88% of bettors are confident in this timeline.

This projected timeline represents a substantial increase in optimism. Just a week prior, on November 7, only 30% of bettors believed a resolution would occur within this timeframe.

If these predictions hold true, it would mark the end of what could be the longest government shutdown in American history.

Legislative Developments as a Resolution Looms

The latest figures from Polymarket come as U.S. lawmakers make progress toward reaching an agreement that would put an end to the month-long shutdown. A minority faction of Democrats assisted in advancing a proposed deal over the weekend, which would fund the government through January. In exchange, Republicans would need to commit to holding a vote in mid-December regarding the extension of healthcare tax credits.

However, the agreement still requires official approval from the House of Representatives and the signature of President Donald Trump.

Internal Democratic Disagreements

Despite the push for a deal, not all Democrats support the agreement. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) expressed her concerns on social media, stating that endorsing the bill would be a “mistake.” She argued, “I will not support a deal that does nothing to make health care more affordable... A simple one-year extension of these tax credits would cost less than Donald Trump’s $40 billion bailout for Argentina.”

If the government were to reopen, it would create an opportunity for U.S. lawmakers to advance digital asset policies in a more crypto-friendly environment.