U.S. Government Shutdown Expected to Last Until Late November, According to Polymarket Bettors

Polymarket bettors anticipate that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could stretch until at least November 16, potentially making it the longest in U.S. history. Concurrently, key figures in the cryptocurrency sector are set to meet with supportive Senate Democrats to discuss upcoming digital asset legislation.

Key Takeaways

25% of Polymarket bettors believe the government shutdown will last until at least November 16.
A prolonged shutdown could last 46 days, surpassing the historical record.
Other bettors predict an earlier end, suggesting closure could occur between October 23 and November 3.
Major executives from the blockchain industry are scheduled to meet with Senate Democrats to discuss digital asset market regulations.
Concerns are raised about the potential impact of proposed regulations on the U.S. crypto market.

Majority of Bettors Forecast Lengthy Government Shutdown

According to insights from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, 25% of bettors foresee the U.S. government shutdown extending at least until November 16. If this prediction materializes, the shutdown would last 46 days, breaking the existing record of 35 days and establishing a new precedent in American history. However, a segment of bettors—23%—believe the stalemate will resolve earlier, with predictions hinting at a conclusion anywhere between October 31 and November 3. Additionally, 18% of participants anticipate an even sooner end, estimating a resolution might be possible between October 23 and October 26.

Senators and Crypto Executives to Discuss Legislation

As the shutdown continues, notable executives in the blockchain industry are organizing to meet with pro-crypto Senate Democrats. This meeting, scheduled for October 22 and led by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, aims to discuss the future of digital asset market structure legislation.

Key industry leaders expected to attend include:

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy
Sergey Nazarov, CEO of Chainlink
David Ripley, CEO of Kraken
Kristin Smith, President of the Solana Policy Institute, and journalist Eleanor Terrett from Crypto in America.

Eleanor Terrett shared the news on social media, highlighting the involvement of various crypto executives in the roundtable discussions.

Furthermore, the roundtable comes shortly after Senate Democrats introduced their own proposal for regulating the cryptocurrency market. Blockchain Association's CEO, Summer Mersinger, remarked on October 9 that the proposal could potentially push responsible developments outside U.S. borders. Mersinger criticized the measure, stating it could effectively prohibit decentralized finance (DeFi), wallet development, and other innovations in the United States, challenging the notion of American ingenuity. As the government shutdown lingers, the ability of lawmakers to bridge their differences in pursuit of policy advancements remains in question.