Altcoin Bulls May Have to Wait Longer: Raoul Pal Predicts 2026 Cycle Peak

Cryptocurrency analysts are revising their expectations about the timing for an altcoin rally, with forecasts suggesting that it might not occur until 2026. This shift is rooted in changes to the debt maturity landscape, which has led to a stretch in the traditional four-year crypto cycle. Key economic indicators, particularly the ISM manufacturing index, play a crucial role in these predictions.

Key Takeaways

Raoul Pal believes that the typical four-year crypto cycle is now extended to five years, delaying an altcoin rally to around Q2 2026.
The ISM manufacturing index is a vital indicator for predicting crypto market movements.
Altcoins have been underperforming Bitcoin, leading to uncertainty about the next rally period.
The current market conditions are reminiscent of 2020, potentially signaling a rally for altcoins if historical patterns hold.

Altcoin season delayed as traders eye 2026 liquidity peak

The Situation for Altcoin Investors

Market analysts are reevaluating expectations regarding the altcoin rally, with some traders suggesting that it may be postponed until 2026, departing from the typical four-year cycle.

Insights from Raoul Pal

Raoul Pal, a well-known macro investor, has pointed out that extensions in debt maturity during 2021 and 2022 have shifted the conventional crypto market cycle timeline by about a year. According to Pal, this adjustment creates what he refers to as a five-year structure instead of the historical four-year model. This shift has resulted in reduced liquidity leading up to the expected rally.

Pal has highlighted the ISM manufacturing index as a critical economic symptom influencing cryptocurrency market fluctuations. Past trends indicate that when the ISM index exceeds 50, rallies in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and subsequent altcoins typically follow suit. "Our best guess remains well into 2026, likely around Q2. That’s when the liquidity cycle is most likely to peak," Pal stated, asserting that he does not believe the crypto market is entering a prolonged bear phase.

Support from Market Strategists

Market strategist Tom Lee also mentioned the link between the ISM index moving past 50 and notable price spikes in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This connection supports forecasts of potential major gains for the cryptocurrency market still ahead.

Crypto trader Ash Crypto has shared chart insights indicating that the broader cryptocurrency market—excluding the top 10 coins—is currently at support levels reminiscent of past altcoin rally kick-offs. This trader suggests that significant altcoin price movements typically commence after the U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its quantitative tightening policies, reinstating liquidity that benefits risk assets.

“2025 will be the year of alts.”
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) December 17, 2025

Ash Crypto's analysis implies the present market dynamics are similar to those from 2020, hinting at the possibility of an altcoin rally starting around 2026, should historical trends repeat.

Current Market Metrics

The Altcoin Season Index is currently positioned at 37, which indicates that the market has not yet transitioned into a phase characterized by widespread altcoin outperformance. Recent market data shows that altcoins have consistently lagged behind Bitcoin in performance over the past several months, instigating concerns among cryptocurrency investors regarding when the next altcoin rally might occur.