Arthur Hayes Ranks Hyperliquid as His Top ‘Shitcoin’ with $150 Target for HYPE

Summary:
Arthur Hayes has identified Hyperliquid as his top "shitcoin" investment, setting a price target of $150 for the HYPE token. As Bitcoin continues to trade near $69K in a market influenced by derivatives and economic fragility, Hayes emphasizes the strength of exchanges during turbulent times.

Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes considers Hyperliquid his largest liquid "shitcoin" position.
He targets a price of $150 for HYPE by August 2026.
Hayes believes that the best-performing "shitcoins" are exchanges due to their consistent revenue generation.
Hyperliquid is described as the leading perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX), with a significant revenue model that includes a buyback program.
Despite macroeconomic challenges, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are showing resilience.

As Bitcoin maintains a solid position near $69K, Arthur Hayes highlights Hyperliquid as his primary liquid "shitcoin" investment. In the context of a derivatives-focused market amid macroeconomic concerns, he views Hyperliquid, with a 13.33% increase, as a standout opportunity. In his recent essay, Hayes describes “hype men” as those who capitalize on attention, asserting that in a volatile market, exchanges tend to outperform since they continue generating revenue even when spot trading is slow.

"My essay on why $HYPE is going to $150 by August 2026."
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— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 9, 2026

Hayes refers to Hyperliquid as the “dominant perp DEX” and notes that it is the most significant profit-generating project outside of stablecoins. He explains that 97% of the revenue is allocated to buying back HYPE tokens from the market. His projections suggest aiming for a price of $150 per HYPE by August 2026, marking a fivefold increase from the approximate $30 price noted at the time. This optimistic scenario hinges on the expectation of revenues recovering to around $1.4 billion over 30 days, along with a modest market share adjustment from centralized exchange (CEX) perpetuals.

He emphasizes that the focus should now be on market structure, rather than just trending narratives. Hayes points out that the average daily volume (ADV) to open interest (OI) ratio is the most reliable metric for evaluating exchanges. He concludes that Hyperliquid boasts the most substantial trade volumes among the top five perpetual DEXs, given its low ADV/OI ratio. This perspective aligns with broader market research like Bybit’s 2026 Crypto Outlook, which indicates that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is losing its influence as market dynamics continuously evolve.

While the broader macroeconomic conditions may seem challenging, the cryptocurrency market is showing a resilient, derivatives-focused nature. Bitcoin is trading around $69,100, marking a 2.7% increase in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is priced at approximately $1,993, fluctuating between $1,922 and $2,016 within a day. Meanwhile, Solana is priced near $81.7, down from $83.2 previously, and Hyperliquid is trading at about $34.2, reflecting a gain of around 13.2% during the session.

Hayes views this environment as ripe for investment: “If the macro is erratic for a while, what can I invest in that’s the highest quality project with genuine users, generating real profits, and sharing those returns with token holders?” His straightforward response is that “Hyperliquid represents the highest quality project in the entire crypto landscape based on these criteria.”

Arthur Hayes highlights Hyperliquid derivatives exchange as top HYPE bet while Bitcoin price trades resiliently near $69K.